Dramatically increase electricity from renewable sources....
Today's post: Wednesday, 1-26-2011
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 3 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post:
Dramatically increase electricity from renewable sources....
In providing electricity, there are several renewable sources we can dramatically increase. To some degree, many countries are finally beginning to do so. And, if it can be done at all and done safely, electricity from nuclear power at least does not release CO2. We can also make our use of electricity much more efficient in virtually all uses. We can gradually go to almost exclusively LED lights for lighting, for example.
We can use Bloom Energy fuel cells to generate electricity from natural gas and we may develop ways to make biogas from coal and do the same. We can then send the CO2 released to algae to make biofuels. And, we may be able to turn some CO2 from existing coal fired plants to minerals that are usable (Skyonic does that.); and we may feed the remainder to algae to make biofuels.
But the faster and more massive our build up of renewable sources for generating electricity, the safer we will be and the stronger our economy will be.
Similarly, adding to the grid and adding to our ability to use it to match demand and supply will help make renewably produced electricity deliverable on demand and when needed. So will advances in battery technology.
In an email based on his comments last night in the State of Union speech. President Barack Obama said this in part:
“Moving forward, America's economic growth at home is inextricably connected to our competitiveness in the global community. The more products American companies can export, the more jobs we can create at home.
This vision for the future starts with innovation, tapping into the creativity and imagination of our people to create the jobs and industries of the future. Instead of subsidizing yesterday's energy, let's invest in tomorrow's. It's why I challenged Congress to join me in setting a new goal: By 2035, 80 percent of America's electricity will come from clean energy sources.
Half a century ago, when the Soviets beat us into space with the launch of a satellite called Sputnik, we had no idea how we'd beat them to the moon. The science wasn't there yet. NASA didn't even exist.
But after investing in better research and education, we didn't just surpass the Soviets. We unleashed a wave of innovation that created new industries and millions of new jobs.
This is our generation's Sputnik moment.
That’s what Americans have done for over 200 years: reinvented ourselves. And to spur on more success stories like the Allen Brothers, we’ve begun to reinvent our energy policy. We’re not just handing out money. We’re issuing a challenge. We’re telling America’s scientists and engineers that if they assemble teams of the best minds in their fields, and focus on the hardest problems in clean energy, we’ll fund the Apollo projects of our time.
We need to get behind this innovation. And to help pay for it, I’m asking Congress to eliminate the billions in taxpayer dollars we currently give to oil companies. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but they’re doing just fine on their own. So instead of subsidizing yesterday’s energy, let’s invest in tomorrow’s.
Now, clean energy breakthroughs will only translate into clean energy jobs if businesses know there will be a market for what they’re selling. So tonight, I challenge you to join me in setting a new goal: By 2035, 80 percent of America’s electricity will come from clean energy sources.
Some folks want wind and solar. Others want nuclear, clean coal and natural gas. To meet this goal, we will need them all and I urge Democrats and Republicans to work together to make it happen.”
Here are my comments.
Clean coal IS becoming more doable from gasifying it where it is mined, moving it through pipelines, and then using Bloom energy fuel cells to generate electricity to gradually retrofitting existing plants that stay running to remove 100 % of the CO2 before it’s released and approaching removing 100 % of the other pollution. But this technology will cost money to install and will increase the cost of electricity from coal.
Nuclear power from breeder reactors maximizes the energy from the uranium that is used and largely solves the waste storage and transport problem since most of the radioactive material never leaves. But you can make nuclear bombs from the contents. So, providing close to fail safe security needs to be added to the cost. Nuclear from non-breeder reactors if used in volume will use up our uranium making it NOT a renewable energy source and does create waste that is potentially unstorable in any safe way. And nuclear is unfinanceable without government guarantees. I think we can build more and likely will do so. But if we do it and even approach doing it safely, it will be expensive.
Oil is likely to jump dramatically in cost as we approach and pass peak oil and it becomes more and more expensive to extract. In the near term while we still over-rely on oil for transport, demand will also increase driving up prices even more. Lastly, as J Paul Getty foresaw years ago, petroleum will gradually be more valuable as a petrochemical feedstock to the point that value will be greater than burning it. So, it should totally be discontinued as a way to generate electricity.
Meanwhile our economy depends on transport that now uses oil almost exclusively. Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles and biofuels more and more together will gradually change that. But for this reason to some degree it may be too soon to stop the tax breaks for the oil companies. The oil companies will and have been spending megabucks on lobbying and on manipulating public opinion to prevent that from happening as well. Their subsidies clearly should be ended but this is clearly NOT the right time to do that and is likely undoable now anyway.
The one fossil fuel that does make some sense to use is natural gas. This is particularly the case now that there is a no to very low pollution and efficient way to use it to generate electricity using Bloom Energy’s fuel cells. The lower temperature and fewer pollutants from this process also will make it easier to capture the CO2 released and power plants can be built set up to do so which will lower the cost of doing it. We likely should be making this a short term priority as it will cost less than clean coal and nuclear and will provide a way to generate electricity on demand that will go well with more sporadic renewable sources.
Next, the one renewable energy that also generates electricity on demand that goes well with wind and solar is geothermal. It won’t be cheap. And, we need to find our more about how to tap it without triggering earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. But enough potential is there, we should do far more than we have to bring more of it online. And, if we can go deep enough and do it safely, there is a LOT of it available.
Meanwhile, it is clear that we only have about 1 or 2 % of the solar installed both photovoltaic and thermal and perhaps 4 to 7 % of the wind generation that we can clearly get to.
To the extent that we can get to 100 % on both by 2035 or by 2050 at least, it will pay us to do so. When you factor in safety and real cost per unit of electricity generated it may even be the cheapest in the long run.
So, we need to dramatically increase our electricity from renewable sources, particularly solar and wind.
Paying for it by ending oil company tax breaks and other subsidies may not be advisable or even doable right away.
But every bit of the rest of the quote by President Obama is right on the mark.:
“Moving forward, America's economic growth at home is inextricably connected to our competitiveness in the global community. The more products American companies can export, the more jobs we can create at home.
This vision for the future starts with innovation, tapping into the creativity and imagination of our people to create the jobs and industries of the future. Instead of subsidizing yesterday's energy, let's invest in tomorrow's. It's why I challenged Congress to join me in setting a new goal: By 2035, 80 percent of America's electricity will come from clean energy sources.
Half a century ago, when the Soviets beat us into space with the launch of a satellite called Sputnik, we had no idea how we'd beat them to the moon. The science wasn't there yet. NASA didn't even exist.
But after investing in better research and education, we didn't just surpass the Soviets. We unleashed a wave of innovation that created new industries and millions of new jobs.
This is our generation's Sputnik moment.“
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Heating with less fossil fuels....
Today's post: Wednesday, 1-19-2011
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 3 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post:
Heating with less fossil fuels....
In providing electricity, there are several renewable sources we can dramatically increase. To some degree, many countries are finally beginning to do so. And, if it can be done at all and done safely, electricity from nuclear power at least does not release CO2. We can also make our use of electricity much more efficient in virtually all uses. We can gradually go to almost exclusively LED lights for lighting, for example.
We can use Bloom Energy fuel cells to generate electricity from natural gas and we may develop ways to make biogas from coal and do the same. We can then send the CO2 released to algae to make biofuels. And, we may be able to turn some CO2 from existing coal fired plants to minerals that are usable (Skyonic does that.); and we may feed the remainder to algae to make biofuels.
We can move to transport with all electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. We can make biofuels from algae and cellulosic alcohol from weeds and agricultural wastes in ways that preserve croplands for food and use less energy to make than they deliver.
We can make the plug-in hybrids with super-efficient diesel engines that run on biodiesel, turbines that run on biofuels, and maybe fuel cells from Bloom Energy that run on natural gas to make the electricity in plug-in hybrids.
So, if we do a good job with each of those, we can use less coal; stop using more coal; & we can use coal with less net CO2 and pollution released when we do use it.
We can use the same or less natural gas to make electricity and use what we do use more efficiently with less net CO2 and pollution released.
Doing all that successfully will slash the amount of oil we are using dramatically.
And, we can slash air conditioning use by doing more to prevent heat from entering buildings in the summer and getting access to local solar power for the remaining use.
But heating homes and businesses now often depend on burning natural gas, oil, or coal or firewood.
We can become dramatically more energy efficient to use less of these fuels by insulating homes and businesses better. We can retrofit their windows with Soladigm windows in double pane styles to both keep heat inside in winter AND to help keep heat out in the summer.
In some applications, we can retrofit heat pumps that run on electricity from renewable or clean or cleaner sources.
And, in new construction, we can design in “passive solar” designs to use more solar heating in winter and insulate dramatically better than we have done.
But for the rest, to stop burning natural gas, oil, or coal or firewood, we need more efficient ways to heat rooms with electricity than we now have.
Ways to do that will be developed or existing but little known ways will become more used. But we need to speed up both processes at lot and find ways to keep the cost down to get the job done.
Today's post: Wednesday, 1-19-2011
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 3 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post:
Heating with less fossil fuels....
In providing electricity, there are several renewable sources we can dramatically increase. To some degree, many countries are finally beginning to do so. And, if it can be done at all and done safely, electricity from nuclear power at least does not release CO2. We can also make our use of electricity much more efficient in virtually all uses. We can gradually go to almost exclusively LED lights for lighting, for example.
We can use Bloom Energy fuel cells to generate electricity from natural gas and we may develop ways to make biogas from coal and do the same. We can then send the CO2 released to algae to make biofuels. And, we may be able to turn some CO2 from existing coal fired plants to minerals that are usable (Skyonic does that.); and we may feed the remainder to algae to make biofuels.
We can move to transport with all electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. We can make biofuels from algae and cellulosic alcohol from weeds and agricultural wastes in ways that preserve croplands for food and use less energy to make than they deliver.
We can make the plug-in hybrids with super-efficient diesel engines that run on biodiesel, turbines that run on biofuels, and maybe fuel cells from Bloom Energy that run on natural gas to make the electricity in plug-in hybrids.
So, if we do a good job with each of those, we can use less coal; stop using more coal; & we can use coal with less net CO2 and pollution released when we do use it.
We can use the same or less natural gas to make electricity and use what we do use more efficiently with less net CO2 and pollution released.
Doing all that successfully will slash the amount of oil we are using dramatically.
And, we can slash air conditioning use by doing more to prevent heat from entering buildings in the summer and getting access to local solar power for the remaining use.
But heating homes and businesses now often depend on burning natural gas, oil, or coal or firewood.
We can become dramatically more energy efficient to use less of these fuels by insulating homes and businesses better. We can retrofit their windows with Soladigm windows in double pane styles to both keep heat inside in winter AND to help keep heat out in the summer.
In some applications, we can retrofit heat pumps that run on electricity from renewable or clean or cleaner sources.
And, in new construction, we can design in “passive solar” designs to use more solar heating in winter and insulate dramatically better than we have done.
But for the rest, to stop burning natural gas, oil, or coal or firewood, we need more efficient ways to heat rooms with electricity than we now have.
Ways to do that will be developed or existing but little known ways will become more used. But we need to speed up both processes at lot and find ways to keep the cost down to get the job done.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
New solar plants to increase California’s electricity from solar....
Today's post: Wednesday, 1-12-2011
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 3 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post:
New solar plants to increase California’s electricity from solar....
This week Southern California Edison signed contracts with SunPower Corp for 3 solar plants producing 711 megawatts of electricity scheduled to go online by 2016 and with Fotowatio Renewable Ventures Inc for 4 solar plants producing 120 megawatts of electricity scheduled to go online by 2013 for a total of 831 megawatts.
The Los Angeles Times said that in 2009, Southern California Edison had renewable electricity which was generated by 3,296 megawatts of wind, geothermal, solar, biomass and small hydropower facilities combined, with solar contributing 382 megawatts of that capacity – “according to the utility’s website.”
So, adding this 831 megawatts of solar will increase Southern California Edison’s renewable electricity by about 25% and more than triple the amount it gets from solar based on those 2009 numbers.
Since these parts of the desert in Southern California also would work well for solar thermal plants, it’s worth noting that solar photovoltaic plants are now cost competitive even in such areas and not just in those where there’s too little sun and heat to make solar thermal work well.
SunPower’s press release had this on why it’s installation is cost effective.:
“At the sites, SunPower will deploy the SunPower Oasis™ power plant, the energy industry’s first modular solar power block that provides a cost-effective way to rapidly deploy utility-scale solar. Engineered to optimize use of available land, each SunPower Oasis power block uses high-efficiency, 425-watt SunPower solar panels with the SunPower T0 Tracker, which positions the panels to track the sun during the day, resulting in up to 25 percent more energy capture over fixed-tilt solar power systems. Additional SunPower Oasis features include pre-manufactured cabling to minimize on-site wiring, the Oasis smart inverter control system to enhance grid interoperability, and SunPower’s Tracker Monitoring and Control System for wireless control of the power plant.“
An article I saw also noted that photovoltaic plants do NOT need water as solar thermal plants do.
The 3 SunPower site contracts include:
110 MW in Los Banos, Calif., scheduled to be operational by year-end 2014.
325 MW in Rosamond, Calif., scheduled to be operational by October 2016.
276 MW in Rosamond, Calif., scheduled to be operational by October 2016.
The 4 Fotowatio Renewable Ventures Inc solar plants will produce 120 megawatts of electricity. But they are scheduled to go online by 2013.
These will be in Lamont, Arvin, Mojave, and Lancaster.
Similarly, in Sacramento, in November 2009, Aerojet, SMUD and Solar Power Inc. of Roseville inaugurated a 3.6-megawatt solar farm at Aerojet's Folsom campus. In June, 2010 the three completed a 2.4-megawatt expansion.
And, In October, solar thermal company BrightSource Energy started construction on a 392 megawatt solar thermal plant at Ivanpah, in southeastern California’s San Bernardino County, approximately 50 miles northwest of Needles, California, and about five miles from the California-Nevada border.
In such areas a very strong advantage of solar thermal, is that it can store the solar heat it collects and deliver into generated electricity on demand for several hours after sunset.
So, it is ideal that California is beginning to get both solar thermal plants and solar photovoltaic plants of decent size.
And, more is coming relatively soon.
“Ivanpah is just the first of BrightSource’s efforts. The company wants to build 14 solar power plants in the southwest by 2016, which will deliver projects meant to fulfill 2,610 megawatts in contracts with California utilities Pacific Gas and Electric Company and Southern California Edison.”
Nor is this all. Within 8 years, I think we will see much more solar at homes and businesses throughout the state. In addition, we may see thin-film solar from Nanosolar in many community locations as they are now building in Germany.
Today's post: Wednesday, 1-12-2011
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 3 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post:
New solar plants to increase California’s electricity from solar....
This week Southern California Edison signed contracts with SunPower Corp for 3 solar plants producing 711 megawatts of electricity scheduled to go online by 2016 and with Fotowatio Renewable Ventures Inc for 4 solar plants producing 120 megawatts of electricity scheduled to go online by 2013 for a total of 831 megawatts.
The Los Angeles Times said that in 2009, Southern California Edison had renewable electricity which was generated by 3,296 megawatts of wind, geothermal, solar, biomass and small hydropower facilities combined, with solar contributing 382 megawatts of that capacity – “according to the utility’s website.”
So, adding this 831 megawatts of solar will increase Southern California Edison’s renewable electricity by about 25% and more than triple the amount it gets from solar based on those 2009 numbers.
Since these parts of the desert in Southern California also would work well for solar thermal plants, it’s worth noting that solar photovoltaic plants are now cost competitive even in such areas and not just in those where there’s too little sun and heat to make solar thermal work well.
SunPower’s press release had this on why it’s installation is cost effective.:
“At the sites, SunPower will deploy the SunPower Oasis™ power plant, the energy industry’s first modular solar power block that provides a cost-effective way to rapidly deploy utility-scale solar. Engineered to optimize use of available land, each SunPower Oasis power block uses high-efficiency, 425-watt SunPower solar panels with the SunPower T0 Tracker, which positions the panels to track the sun during the day, resulting in up to 25 percent more energy capture over fixed-tilt solar power systems. Additional SunPower Oasis features include pre-manufactured cabling to minimize on-site wiring, the Oasis smart inverter control system to enhance grid interoperability, and SunPower’s Tracker Monitoring and Control System for wireless control of the power plant.“
An article I saw also noted that photovoltaic plants do NOT need water as solar thermal plants do.
The 3 SunPower site contracts include:
110 MW in Los Banos, Calif., scheduled to be operational by year-end 2014.
325 MW in Rosamond, Calif., scheduled to be operational by October 2016.
276 MW in Rosamond, Calif., scheduled to be operational by October 2016.
The 4 Fotowatio Renewable Ventures Inc solar plants will produce 120 megawatts of electricity. But they are scheduled to go online by 2013.
These will be in Lamont, Arvin, Mojave, and Lancaster.
Similarly, in Sacramento, in November 2009, Aerojet, SMUD and Solar Power Inc. of Roseville inaugurated a 3.6-megawatt solar farm at Aerojet's Folsom campus. In June, 2010 the three completed a 2.4-megawatt expansion.
And, In October, solar thermal company BrightSource Energy started construction on a 392 megawatt solar thermal plant at Ivanpah, in southeastern California’s San Bernardino County, approximately 50 miles northwest of Needles, California, and about five miles from the California-Nevada border.
In such areas a very strong advantage of solar thermal, is that it can store the solar heat it collects and deliver into generated electricity on demand for several hours after sunset.
So, it is ideal that California is beginning to get both solar thermal plants and solar photovoltaic plants of decent size.
And, more is coming relatively soon.
“Ivanpah is just the first of BrightSource’s efforts. The company wants to build 14 solar power plants in the southwest by 2016, which will deliver projects meant to fulfill 2,610 megawatts in contracts with California utilities Pacific Gas and Electric Company and Southern California Edison.”
Nor is this all. Within 8 years, I think we will see much more solar at homes and businesses throughout the state. In addition, we may see thin-film solar from Nanosolar in many community locations as they are now building in Germany.
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
Why gasoline, diesel fuel, and natural gas may soon cost much more....
Today's post: Wednesday, 1-5-2011
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 3 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post: Why gasoline, diesel fuel, and natural gas may soon cost much more....
Our post always begins with this:
“At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 3 years from now.”
Before the recent US credit crisis caused its severe recession, demand had gasoline well over $4 a gallon. The US economy is slowly recovering somewhat. But more than that, the economies of India and China are expanding -- AND, their demand for oil and natural gas is going up.
So, as this increase in demand continues, the increases in oil and natural gas production cost more for each measured unit of them than was true before as the cheap, easy to find supplies have mostly been found and many are running out.
In addition, some of this new oil and natural gas is coming from environmentally harmful extraction methods. Since there are influential people in the areas where this is being done who dislike the idea of where they live becoming an unhealthy to live in wasteland and like it or not, pollution and CO2 release will begin to cost more for many reasons, these costs may easily go up even more. (The technology does exist to minimize the environmental damage; and thanks to Skyonic we now have a way to remove CO2 from exhaust also.)
So gasoline at $5 or $6 a gallon is relatively likely within the next 3 years.
But what if it were to go up by an extra fifty percent too?
That would mean gasoline at $7.50 to $9.00 a gallon within the $3 years.
Yikes! In Europe, they already have gasoline in that range. But they have more effective rail transport and mass transit than we do; and many of their cities are more compact than those we grew in the United States due to cheap oil and gasoline.
It seems this scenario is possible and maybe even likely.
We still import about half the oil we use. But the high levels of debt the US government took on as Bush funded our military in Afghanistan and Iraq with it; and Obama used it to prevent the US from falling into a depression -- mean that the dollar may soon buy half as much outside the US as it does today.
Funding our military in the Middle East despite its mixed success and possibly mistaken stated rationale for being there, HAS helped us ensure that we continue to get oil from the Middle East. And, a true depression with double or triple the current unemployment rate was and is worth avoiding!
But, as long as we get half our oil from outside the US, if we must pay twice as much for that oil, using the oil will cost 50% more on top of any other increases!
Based on a very persuasive audio I recently heard online about why the dollar may lose value internationally, this is the most conservative and least scary likely scenario.
It could be even worse.
The only good news in this is that energy efficiency and using all electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will get an enormous boost as this begins to take place.
It will also begin to dramatically increase the motivation of people in the United States to find ways to avoid having to import oil from outside the country.
Because most things everyone buys today are transported using oil, it also suggests that some inflation may well return within the 3 years.
It remains to be seen how all of this will play out. But on top of trying to recover from the current recession, it will be challenging.
Today's post: Wednesday, 1-5-2011
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 3 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post: Why gasoline, diesel fuel, and natural gas may soon cost much more....
Our post always begins with this:
“At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 3 years from now.”
Before the recent US credit crisis caused its severe recession, demand had gasoline well over $4 a gallon. The US economy is slowly recovering somewhat. But more than that, the economies of India and China are expanding -- AND, their demand for oil and natural gas is going up.
So, as this increase in demand continues, the increases in oil and natural gas production cost more for each measured unit of them than was true before as the cheap, easy to find supplies have mostly been found and many are running out.
In addition, some of this new oil and natural gas is coming from environmentally harmful extraction methods. Since there are influential people in the areas where this is being done who dislike the idea of where they live becoming an unhealthy to live in wasteland and like it or not, pollution and CO2 release will begin to cost more for many reasons, these costs may easily go up even more. (The technology does exist to minimize the environmental damage; and thanks to Skyonic we now have a way to remove CO2 from exhaust also.)
So gasoline at $5 or $6 a gallon is relatively likely within the next 3 years.
But what if it were to go up by an extra fifty percent too?
That would mean gasoline at $7.50 to $9.00 a gallon within the $3 years.
Yikes! In Europe, they already have gasoline in that range. But they have more effective rail transport and mass transit than we do; and many of their cities are more compact than those we grew in the United States due to cheap oil and gasoline.
It seems this scenario is possible and maybe even likely.
We still import about half the oil we use. But the high levels of debt the US government took on as Bush funded our military in Afghanistan and Iraq with it; and Obama used it to prevent the US from falling into a depression -- mean that the dollar may soon buy half as much outside the US as it does today.
Funding our military in the Middle East despite its mixed success and possibly mistaken stated rationale for being there, HAS helped us ensure that we continue to get oil from the Middle East. And, a true depression with double or triple the current unemployment rate was and is worth avoiding!
But, as long as we get half our oil from outside the US, if we must pay twice as much for that oil, using the oil will cost 50% more on top of any other increases!
Based on a very persuasive audio I recently heard online about why the dollar may lose value internationally, this is the most conservative and least scary likely scenario.
It could be even worse.
The only good news in this is that energy efficiency and using all electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will get an enormous boost as this begins to take place.
It will also begin to dramatically increase the motivation of people in the United States to find ways to avoid having to import oil from outside the country.
Because most things everyone buys today are transported using oil, it also suggests that some inflation may well return within the 3 years.
It remains to be seen how all of this will play out. But on top of trying to recover from the current recession, it will be challenging.
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