Beliefs about Energy Solutions....

Today’s post: Wednesday, 9-3-2008

A week ago last Friday on 8-22, 2008 Rasmussen, the polling company released the information that

“….voters believe electric or hybrid cars and nuclear power plants are more likely than solar or wind power to significantly reduce America's dependence on foreign oil. Biofuels such as ethanol are seen as even less likely to help.”

(See www.rasmussenreports.com .) ”….37% believe electric or hybrid cars are Very Likely to have such a positive impact. Thirty-two percent (32%) say the same about nuclear power; 25% are that optimistic about solar power, and 22% say wind power can accomplish the goal.
While none of these alternative energy sources are seen as overwhelmingly likely to reduce dependence on foreign oil, roughly two-thirds or more say each is at least somewhat likely to reduce U.S. reliance on oil from afar.”
As with just about everything in a political season, there is a significant partisan divide.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of Republicans say that nuclear power is Very Likely to help. Just 18% of Democrats share that view. Republican presidential candidate John McCain has called for the building of more nuclear power plants.

Democrats are more confident than Republicans when it comes to electric cars, solar power and wind power, all alternative energy proposals endorsed by Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama.
For unaffiliated voters, it's a little of each, with electric cars and nuclear power seen as the most promising alternatives.”

“…. Voters believe there is an urgent national need to find new sources of energy.

They also believe McCain's priority is to find more energy sources while Obama's is to reduce the amount of energy the United States consumes. That is one reason McCain has caught up to Obama nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

The Rasmussen Reports survey also asked about biofuels such as ethanol. Just 17% believe that such fuels are Very Likely to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Another 36% say they are somewhat likely to do so.”

The facts are these from the information I’ve gotten.:

1. The reality is that we badly need to install as much of the wind generation of electricity as we can as the potential is clearly there for a significant contribution from wind. It may not get as high as 20 %; but it clearly can get to 10 % or more. And, it’s already cost competitive with fossil fuels. It’s much safer & less expensive than nuclear power and already being built.

T. Boone Pickens idea to use natural gas for cars probably is not likely to be as productive as massive increases in electric cars and plug in hybrids. But his understanding of & publicity about wind generated electricity and the need to install lots of it and the new transmission lines needed to get it to the urban areas where it will be used is brilliant & much needed.

2. The reality is that solar thermal farms and widely distributed installation of solar photovoltaics of all kinds are at parity with coal for electricity generation for solar thermal farms and already close to it for thin film solar photovoltaics.

Since the potential is available to supply over 100 % of our electricity needs from this combination, it’s crystal clear that if we want to solve global warming and prevent a poor or collapsing economy caused by more increases in gasoline and other fossil fuel prices and/or restricted supply, we need to make very rapid and massive increases in building solar thermal farms & widely distributed installation of solar photovoltaics of all kinds.

It’s doable and has the most ability to bail us out. But it’s not likely to be built on a large enough scale or soon enough if only 25% of the people know this information.

3. Technically nuclear power can make a contribution. And, I think it will be used.

But it should only be built with the appropriate breeder technology to dramatically reduce extremely long lived radioactive wastes and to make it last longer than the projected 35 year supply if we don’t use breeder technology. And, it should only be built if the security against terrorists stealing the fissionable materials in the reactors that easily makes bombs is adequately in place.

This means it will be much more expensive to do safely than the polls suggest people have any clue that it will be.

This means we cannot rely on it that much.

4. Biofuels will help, particularly those made cost effectively from nonfood sources such as agricultural waste or weeds (such as Switchgrass or Kudzu) or algae. Given the installed base of diesel engines and gasoline engines, we will need biofuels for many years if we are to phase out oil as much as we need to do.

But if the battery technology works as well as it looks likely to and the amount of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles goes up enough it will be enough more efficient to use solar generated electricity to power them that looks like the long term future for transport.

In conclusion, if our voters don’t know this information and see the evidence for it, particularly for the huge potential of solar thermal farms and widely distributed installation of solar photovoltaics of all kinds, they won’t support the building of them enough to keep our economy out of trouble. And we can forget about solving global warming.

According to this Rasmussen survey, this has NOT happened yet.

Secondly, since Barack Obama and the Democrats are best informed & most likely to do the right things, it’s scary that the survey finds a perception of them as being in favor only of conservation and doing without.

If they want to be elected as I think we need for them to be to protect our economy and move towards a solution to global warming, they need very much to get the facts out that massive increases in renewable energy are realistic AND needed to keep our economy from getting much WORSE.

They need to bring home to the average voter, as this survey shows they have NOT done, that they have a realistic plan to not only keep the economy from getting worse but one that will move us to where we can safely have more – and MUCH more than we will otherwise.

The Democrats in this election ARE the ones who will best protect & improve our economy but they need to do an excellent and effective job in letting the voters know it or we are all in trouble.