Here comes peak oil ready or not!....

Today's post: Wednesday, 3-17-2010

We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.

At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both.

And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.

Further, it’s extremely clear that the most supported and economically beneficial solution to add energy that does not use oil nor burn fossil fuels to release more CO2 into air that already has too much is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy production, particularly those that generate electricity & to dramatically increase energy efficiency and reduce the amount of energy that is now wasted.

And, of those, the more important long range solution is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy generation.

Today’s post:

Here in California, I once campaigned for a man called Steve Poizner who made a convincing case he understood the need for sources of energy for our economy other than oil. That was my main motivation for supporting him.

It seems I massively overestimated how smart he was, how ethical he was, and how much he really understood about the energy crisis and its very likely dire consequences for our economy if it’s not handled well.

He AND Meg Whitman are now the Republican candidates for Governor of California.

Under the Republican Governor here, Arnold Schwarzenegger, California has almost done the right thing on energy; and he personally helped the state pioneer some of those programs.

Now both Steve Poizner, who I had THOUGHT understood the energy situation -- AND Meg Whitman recently debated and BOTH said they would postpone those same programs until the economy improves.

Given the news I’m posting on today, neither one is well informed enough on this issue to be QUALIFIED to be Governor of California.

Here’s why.

When peak oil hits, if we have done too little to:

add decent amounts of electricity from clean or cleaner sources,
put many all electric and plug-in hybrids on the road,
and set up many programs to provide interim fuels from sources other than petroleum,

massive run ups in fuel and transport costs will return and rapidly get so bad, the economy will be horrible and might even be worse than that!

Do you see evidence will be ready for this in 5 or 6 years? We’re getting there. But achieving this adequately is more like 10 or 20 years out from what I’ve seen.

Oops! We may need to be ready in 5 or 6 years anyway!

Recently, a source that’s well informed and knowledgeable on oil reserves and real demand for oil says that we can expect peak oil in 2014.

That’s soon! That’s just 4 years off!

Given that, there is NO acceptable excuse for postponing ANY programs that can help us deal with that -- NONE whatever.

Needless to say, as a moderate Republican, I wish Arnold was running again. But since he is not, it looks now like I’ll be campaigning for the Democrat, Jerry Brown.

If peak oil does arrive in 2014, it looks to me as if we will need all the help we can get to avoid a REALLY BAD economy.

Here’s that story.:

“Oil Production to Peak in 2014, Scientists Predict by Jeremy Hsu LiveScience Contributor LiveScience.com Friday, 3-12-2010

Predicting the end of oil has proven tricky and often controversial, but Kuwaiti scientists now say that global oil production will peak in 2014.

Their work represents an updated version of the famous Hubbert model, which correctly predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil reserves would peak within 20 years. Many researchers have since tried using the model to predict when worldwide oil production might peak.

Some have said production already peaked. One earlier model by Swedish researchers suggested that oil would peak sometime between 2008 and 2018. And other researchers have argued there are decades to go before oil production goes into irreversible decline. The only thing they all agree on: Oil is a finite and very valuable resource.

The issue's profile was raised today with a new report projecting increased demand. After peaking above $130 a barrel in mid-2008, crude oil prices dipped to below $40 in early 2009 as global demand tanked amid the recession. Prices have been rising ever since and are above $80 now. Today, the International Energy Agency said it expects demand to resume the sort of growth that was common in recent years. Much of that growth has involved the modernizing economies of China and India.

Updated model The scientists from Kuwait University and the Kuwait Oil Company adopted a newer approach by including many Hubbert production cycles, or bell-shaped curves showing the rise and fall of a non-recyclable resource. Earlier models typically assumed just one production cycle, despite the fact that most oil-producing nations have historically experienced more of a rollercoaster ride in production.

Such production cycles reflect the influence of new technological innovations in the oil industry, government regulations, economic conditions and political events. The factors include the discovery of new oil deposits, the recent economic recession and the rise of renewable energy.

Take Mexico as just one example. The nation that has long represented a top oil exporter has experienced plummeting oil production, and might even begin importing oil within the decade, the New York Times reports. Its troubles have arisen from a lack of technology to explore more inaccessible oil deposits, and a conundrum stemming from a 1938 law that banned foreign oil companies.

Caltech physicist David Goodstein has argued for a practical approach that focuses on preparing for the end of oil, regardless of when it happens. He noted that the latest prediction seems to represent a serious, thoughtful estimate.

"Of course there are large uncertainties in estimates of this kind, but this one is as good as any I've seen," Goodstein told LiveScience.

Some oil companies and consultancy firms such as Cambridge Energy Research Associates have speculated that oil will peak sometime after 2020, but a number of oil geologists and executives predict it will happen much sooner. “

“The Kuwaiti study created its world model for peak oil based on 47 individual models for each major oil-producing nation. It also took a separate look at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which includes nations that control about 35 percent of the world's oil reserves.

More complications may still change the ultimate end date for peak oil. OPEC's latest projection suggests that world oil demand will grow by 900,000 barrels per day in 2010, according to an Associated Press story this week. That follows a period of low oil demand during the height of the worldwide recession in 2009.

For now, Kuwaiti scientists say that the world continues to consume its oil reserves at a rate of about 2.1 percent each year. They plan to continue including new data that can refine the model as time goes by.”


My sincere and strong hope is that the energy bill sponsored by Senators Kerry, Lieberman, and Graham is passed and signed into law.

If peak oil will arrive that soon, we will need every part of each of that bill’s programs to survive the economic hit of Peak Oil.

We will badly need the new renewable energy it proposes.

We will badly need the new electricity produced by nuclear power that it proposes.

And, though I wish it were otherwise, we not only need to include the additional oil drilling in the United States it proposes to get the votes to get the bill passed,
we may well need the oil itself to help stave off disaster for our economy due to the rapid run ups in cost and drop off in supply from sources outside the United States.