Dramatically increase electricity from renewable sources....

Today's post: Wednesday, 1-26-2011

We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.

At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 3 years from now.

And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.

Today’s post:

Dramatically increase electricity from renewable sources....

In providing electricity, there are several renewable sources we can dramatically increase. To some degree, many countries are finally beginning to do so. And, if it can be done at all and done safely, electricity from nuclear power at least does not release CO2. We can also make our use of electricity much more efficient in virtually all uses. We can gradually go to almost exclusively LED lights for lighting, for example.

We can use Bloom Energy fuel cells to generate electricity from natural gas and we may develop ways to make biogas from coal and do the same. We can then send the CO2 released to algae to make biofuels. And, we may be able to turn some CO2 from existing coal fired plants to minerals that are usable (Skyonic does that.); and we may feed the remainder to algae to make biofuels.

But the faster and more massive our build up of renewable sources for generating electricity, the safer we will be and the stronger our economy will be.

Similarly, adding to the grid and adding to our ability to use it to match demand and supply will help make renewably produced electricity deliverable on demand and when needed. So will advances in battery technology.

In an email based on his comments last night in the State of Union speech. President Barack Obama said this in part:

“Moving forward, America's economic growth at home is inextricably connected to our competitiveness in the global community. The more products American companies can export, the more jobs we can create at home.

This vision for the future starts with innovation, tapping into the creativity and imagination of our people to create the jobs and industries of the future. Instead of subsidizing yesterday's energy, let's invest in tomorrow's. It's why I challenged Congress to join me in setting a new goal: By 2035, 80 percent of America's electricity will come from clean energy sources.

Half a century ago, when the Soviets beat us into space with the launch of a satellite called Sputnik, we had no idea how we'd beat them to the moon. The science wasn't there yet. NASA didn't even exist.

But after investing in better research and education, we didn't just surpass the Soviets. We unleashed a wave of innovation that created new industries and millions of new jobs.

This is our generation's Sputnik moment.

That’s what Americans have done for over 200 years: reinvented ourselves. And to spur on more success stories like the Allen Brothers, we’ve begun to reinvent our energy policy. We’re not just handing out money. We’re issuing a challenge. We’re telling America’s scientists and engineers that if they assemble teams of the best minds in their fields, and focus on the hardest problems in clean energy, we’ll fund the Apollo projects of our time.

We need to get behind this innovation. And to help pay for it, I’m asking Congress to eliminate the billions in taxpayer dollars we currently give to oil companies. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but they’re doing just fine on their own. So instead of subsidizing yesterday’s energy, let’s invest in tomorrow’s.

Now, clean energy breakthroughs will only translate into clean energy jobs if businesses know there will be a market for what they’re selling. So tonight, I challenge you to join me in setting a new goal: By 2035, 80 percent of America’s electricity will come from clean energy sources.

Some folks want wind and solar. Others want nuclear, clean coal and natural gas. To meet this goal, we will need them all and I urge Democrats and Republicans to work together to make it happen.”

Here are my comments.

Clean coal IS becoming more doable from gasifying it where it is mined, moving it through pipelines, and then using Bloom energy fuel cells to generate electricity to gradually retrofitting existing plants that stay running to remove 100 % of the CO2 before it’s released and approaching removing 100 % of the other pollution. But this technology will cost money to install and will increase the cost of electricity from coal.

Nuclear power from breeder reactors maximizes the energy from the uranium that is used and largely solves the waste storage and transport problem since most of the radioactive material never leaves. But you can make nuclear bombs from the contents. So, providing close to fail safe security needs to be added to the cost. Nuclear from non-breeder reactors if used in volume will use up our uranium making it NOT a renewable energy source and does create waste that is potentially unstorable in any safe way. And nuclear is unfinanceable without government guarantees. I think we can build more and likely will do so. But if we do it and even approach doing it safely, it will be expensive.

Oil is likely to jump dramatically in cost as we approach and pass peak oil and it becomes more and more expensive to extract. In the near term while we still over-rely on oil for transport, demand will also increase driving up prices even more. Lastly, as J Paul Getty foresaw years ago, petroleum will gradually be more valuable as a petrochemical feedstock to the point that value will be greater than burning it. So, it should totally be discontinued as a way to generate electricity.

Meanwhile our economy depends on transport that now uses oil almost exclusively. Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles and biofuels more and more together will gradually change that. But for this reason to some degree it may be too soon to stop the tax breaks for the oil companies. The oil companies will and have been spending megabucks on lobbying and on manipulating public opinion to prevent that from happening as well. Their subsidies clearly should be ended but this is clearly NOT the right time to do that and is likely undoable now anyway.

The one fossil fuel that does make some sense to use is natural gas. This is particularly the case now that there is a no to very low pollution and efficient way to use it to generate electricity using Bloom Energy’s fuel cells. The lower temperature and fewer pollutants from this process also will make it easier to capture the CO2 released and power plants can be built set up to do so which will lower the cost of doing it. We likely should be making this a short term priority as it will cost less than clean coal and nuclear and will provide a way to generate electricity on demand that will go well with more sporadic renewable sources.

Next, the one renewable energy that also generates electricity on demand that goes well with wind and solar is geothermal. It won’t be cheap. And, we need to find our more about how to tap it without triggering earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. But enough potential is there, we should do far more than we have to bring more of it online. And, if we can go deep enough and do it safely, there is a LOT of it available.

Meanwhile, it is clear that we only have about 1 or 2 % of the solar installed both photovoltaic and thermal and perhaps 4 to 7 % of the wind generation that we can clearly get to.

To the extent that we can get to 100 % on both by 2035 or by 2050 at least, it will pay us to do so. When you factor in safety and real cost per unit of electricity generated it may even be the cheapest in the long run.

So, we need to dramatically increase our electricity from renewable sources, particularly solar and wind.

Paying for it by ending oil company tax breaks and other subsidies may not be advisable or even doable right away.

But every bit of the rest of the quote by President Obama is right on the mark.:

“Moving forward, America's economic growth at home is inextricably connected to our competitiveness in the global community. The more products American companies can export, the more jobs we can create at home.

This vision for the future starts with innovation, tapping into the creativity and imagination of our people to create the jobs and industries of the future. Instead of subsidizing yesterday's energy, let's invest in tomorrow's. It's why I challenged Congress to join me in setting a new goal: By 2035, 80 percent of America's electricity will come from clean energy sources.

Half a century ago, when the Soviets beat us into space with the launch of a satellite called Sputnik, we had no idea how we'd beat them to the moon. The science wasn't there yet. NASA didn't even exist.

But after investing in better research and education, we didn't just surpass the Soviets. We unleashed a wave of innovation that created new industries and millions of new jobs.

This is our generation's Sputnik moment.“