Clean energy reasons to be thankful....

Today's post: Wednesday, 11-25-2009

We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.

At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both.

And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.

Further, it’s extremely clear that the most supported and economically beneficial solution to add energy that does not use oil nor burn fossil fuels to release more CO2 into air that already has too much is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy production, particularly those that generate electricity & to dramatically increase energy efficiency and reduce the amount of energy that is now wasted.

And, of those the more important long range solution is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy generation.

More and more people AND countries are beginning to realize these things and take constructive action.

So, despite being badly rushed for time to act and the world-wide slow start, we are beginning to have some things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving.

China has recently made several announcements that will soon add gigawatts of new electric generation from wind and solar sources. India has begun the process of adding gigawatts of solar electricity generation.

And, as these things come online they will gradually begin to trigger the transmission upgrades to deliver this new electricity to where it will be used.

Next, for several reasons, it turns out that global warming has temporarily slowed. Since we are so far behind in combating it, that’s a blessing. The world wide recession has caused many people to suffer and to a degree impoverished everyone. But we are generating and releasing far less CO2 than we would have been without it.

In addition, some of the effects of global warming have created some braking effects apparently. Just as ice cools a drink on a hot day, the increased melts of polar ice and glaciers has apparently caused some cooling of the oceans and changes in their currents that have temporarily slowed warming effects.

(Of course the people who want to believe burning fossil fuels and releasing CO2 is not causing warming think this means they are correct. Their problem is that for the survival of our global economy as we run short of oil and the national security of the countries that now depend on imported oil, we need to act is if global warming is true even if they are right. Worse for them, the other and ample evidence shows they are likely only indulging in wishful thinking about CO2 releases not causing global warming.)

But regardless if they are right or wrong, we HAVE been cut a short break that will, or at least might, help us get started in time to prevent some of the worst energy related disasters.

In the United States and China, because of the huge installed base and massive economic dependence on coal fired plants, it will take far longer than many of us would like to begin to cut back on electricity from coal. But here too there are several signs of improvements to come.

Between the growing lack of patience of the people and politicians with the various kinds of pollution, other than releasing CO2, connected with mining and burning coal in BOTH the United States and China AND the need to burn far less to lower CO2 emissions AND the increasing availability of new clean sources of electricity that is finally beginning to come online, we may not yet be using less coal; but the amount of NEW coal fired plants being built is beginning to drop to zero.

Additionally, though the political representatives of the states in the United States that depend on coal for jobs, statewide over-all business income, and electricity now -- may stop cap and trade legislation in the US Senate for a while longer, many of the individual states that are horribly strapped for cash during this severe recession are firing up or acting on plans to set up state or region wide cap & trade policies that send them new revenue.

So, we will soon be left with a very different and smaller coal industry. More ways will be found to mine it without horrible land, water, and air pollution; and other practices will gradually be outlawed. More ways to clean particulates and other kinds of air pollution from burning coal will be found and mandated with many sloppier and less responsible current practices then outlawed. Many coal fired plants will be in political areas that have some kind of CO2 cap & trade. Then at some point renewable sources of electricity both existing and new will generate electricity for less money than coal will be able to do.

Some utilities and coal companies will begin to produce biofuels from feeding their released CO2 to algae that produce it, make coal directly into cleaner burning and more easily transported methane & directly into gasoline and diesel fuel not dependent on using petroleum. And they will begin to use coal to make plastics and other carbon based commodities as the petrochemical industries have done and to compete with them.

The rest of the coal companies will go out of business.

All this will take 25 to 35 years when we need it to take 10. But it is happening and will happen.

The leaders of the coal companies need to decide which group they want to have their company be in.

All of this is progress to be thankful for and was NOT happening before now.

Lastly, the boom in cars and trucks that are hybrids, can burn other fuels than petroleum based ones, and plug in hybrids and all electric cars, biofuel production, and soon more carbon based fuels from coal all mean that, we have a shot at using enough less oil soon to increase the dependence of the United States and other countries in the developed world on oil from politically unstable places. And, it is beginning to look now as if this is happening in time to prevent gasoline and diesel prices from going above $10 a gallon in today’s dollars or having our economy collapse when we begin to truly run out of petroleum.