Electric cars may be a key catalyst for renewable energy....

Today's post: Wednesday, 8-4-2010

We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.

At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 4 years from now.

And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.

Today’s post:

There will be a place for biofuels in an economy that is sustainable. Aviation fuels and for travel outside of areas with access to electricity and for the transition while very large numbers of vehicles still in use run on liquid fuels will all continue to need liquid fuels. So to stop using fuels from oil, we will need biofuels. And, biofuels from agricultural waste, from algae grown on lands not suitable for farming, and from algae fed CO2 from burning coal or oil or natural gas or from fuel cells using natural gas (see Bloom Energy), all will gradually become more available and more economically viable.

But, as the founder of Nanosolar showed in his blog, for harvesting energy from the sun, even our current technology for photovoltaic solar cells delivers many multiples of the energy that can be harvested from the same area through biofuels. Similarly, solar thermal, wind, and even nuclear as a CO2 and coal and oil free source of energy all output electricity.

So to the extent we wish to run our economy or the clear and large majority of our economy free from oil and coal, it will pay us to use these cleaner sources instead. And, they output electricity.

So, because of the large numbers of electric and plug-in hybrid cars now poised for sale in the next few months to few years, this enables a trend towards a more sustainable energy economy based on these renewable sources.

However, while oil and coal are not yet charged for the real costs of the pollution generated in extracting and burning them or for releasing CO2, it will take continuous drops in cost for electricity from renewable sources.

The good news is that I think over time they will be charged for these things. Further, due to the growth of population and economic growth the demand for oil will be greater than the supply again. That will drive costs up for drivers enough to make biofuels cost less and cause many people to switch to electric cars.

Then we will reach peak oil and the prices for oil will double and double again while the actual supply of oil will go down.

So, to change the majority of our transport to sustainable energy sources and to protect our economy, the majority of our transport should soon be powered by electricity. That means that the current surge of new models of cars that will be powered all or mostly by electricity, is not just good news but is in fact a critically important development.