National Oil Savings Plan of the Union of Concerned Scientists....

Today's post: Wednesday, 8-18-2010

We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.

At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 4 years from now.

And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.

Today’s post:

I subscribe to emails from 5 clean energy groups. I got an email this morning from the Union of Concerned Scientists asking me to forward a copy of their National Oil Savings Plan to President Obama.

I have two points to make in this post.

1. I think this is silly. President Obama believes in their goals; and he and the key people in his Department of Energy likely already have a copy of their plan. For example, they have already done well in supporting the development of electric cars and advanced battery design. They have acted to increase mileage standards.

What might help President Obama is a well informed enough and capable enough political consultant to show him how to sell the new jobs -- AND how overcoming the threat of peak oil slam dunking our economy is a critical job to PROTECT our existing jobs. This would be someone who would be effective enough and know how to test ideas well enough to enable him to promote actions to support clean energy AND win votes by doing so.

As long as the timid and short-sighted political consultants he has now hold him back or fail to do this, in Arnold Schwarzenegger’s words, he is “losing at the box office.”

In this economy, unless people realize and believe clean energy will add jobs and how much it will protect their jobs and lifestyles from the coming effects of peak oil AND that Obama is doing a good job on this issue, he will lose votes to others who voters think are promoting a strong economy better.

So, I decided to pass on writing him about their plan.

2. However, you and your Representative to the House in Washington and your Senators might not have seen it or understand how it important it is to put it into place.

So, I will post it here and add just after that why I think it is critical that it be adopted.

National Oil Savings Plan of the Union of Concerned Scientists

Scientific Solutions for America’s Oil Dependence

America's dependence on oil puts our environment, economy, public health, and national security at risk. But unless we create an oil savings plan that is based on sound science, smart policy, and good technology, we will repeat the mistakes of the past and stay reliant on oil.

That is why UCS is advocating for a plan that moves the country forward by boosting the fuel economy of our vehicles, producing clean biofuels, and investing in the next generation of advanced vehicles that no longer rely exclusively on oil.

If Americans were to do nothing to improve energy efficiency, or to invest in clean alternative fuels, and nothing to change the travel choices we make every day, our dependence could rise to more than 25 million barrels of oil each day by 2030.

If we instead secure the needed commitments from decision makers, automakers, fuel producers, and consumers, together, we can cut America's projected oil consumption by 2030 in half. This would save tens of billions of dollars at the gas pump; provide for a safer, more diverse, and more secure American energy future; and put the United States squarely in the driver's seat as a leader in addressing the urgent issue of climate change.

Working together as a nation we can finally start moving beyond oil. In addition to defending the hard-won victories on cleaner cars and fuel standards, UCS has developed a suite of policies that will transform our future:

Each point below lists these components:

Policy title
Description
Oil Savings (2030) in million barrels a day (mbd)

a) Improvements in Light-Duty Fuel Economy and Expanded Vehicle Electrification

Under existing authority, DOT and EPA can increase the fuel economy and reduce tailpipe emissions from light-duty vehicles. Tight standards and strong financial incentives can lead to an aggressive penetration of electric drive vehicles (plug-in hybrid, fuel cell and battery electric). By 2030, these vehicles would represent approximately 25% of all new vehicles sold.

5.8 mbd

b) Medium & Heavy-Duty Fuel Economy

Using existing authority from EISA and the Clean Air act, EPA and DOT can increase the fuel economy of medium duty vehicles to approximately 16mpg and heavy-duty vehicles to over 10mpg in 2030.

1.0 mbd

c) Improve Efficiency of Other Transportation Modes

Using existing authority, EPA can improve fuel economy and reduce emissions from non-road vehicles, including planes, trains, boats, and other non-highway vehicles.

0.7 mbd

d) Advanced Biofuels

Cellulosic biofuels made from grass, wood waste and even garbage can replace as much as 20 billion gallons of gasoline by 2030. But they are currently not projected to even meet the RFS mandates in 2022 due to a lack of capital. Adopting policies to launch a move from the lab into production would help reach and even exceed the RFS targets.

1.3 mbd

e) Industrial and Building Efficiency

Increase the energy efficiency in buildings and improve industrial processes, including an efficiency boost of boilers operating on fuel oil 50% by 2030

3.8 mbd

e) Smart Growth and Expanded Public Transit Options

Expanded public transit options, mode-shifting for freight, smart traffic management and other smart growth strategies.

1.3 mbd

TOTAL of these steps in OIL SAVINGS as contrasted to no action: 13.9 mbd

(These steps are listed exactly as they did. But I upgraded the format so they are clearer.)

The UCS oil savings plan is crucial to move our country forward. If we defend our current vehicle fuel economy standards and consumers and businesses meet oil consumption expectations, America’s oil use would simply remain at its current level.

We must go further, we must decrease our oil use, and that is what the UCS oil savings plan does.

The full suite of solutions will save more oil than the United States currently imports and will cut our total use of oil and other petroleum products to levels not seen since the 1960s. This would allow the transportation sector to emerge as the spearhead of a new clean energy economy.

Last Revised: 08/16/10 Clean Vehicles (plan)

My comments:

Their goals for expanding the use of electric cars and plug-in hybrids may be low. More may be achievable given the momentum building in the marketplace.

And, it would be a valuable addition to add goals for getting the new electricity for this effort from new wind and solar (both photovoltaic and thermal) electricity generation as well as from Bloom Energy’s natural gas powered fuel cells instead of by burning more coal.

Similarly goals for getting this natural gas from gasifying coal and getting some of the biofuels from the CO2 released when coal is used to generate electricity either with fuel cells or by burning in existing plants by having algae convert the CO2 to biofuels would be good. This would give the coal industry somewhere positive to go; and it would use our abundant coal deposits better to make us far less dependent on oil.

As you know if you have been reading this blog, peak oil is coming and to avoid having it slam dunk our economy which is now heavily oil dependent, taking these actions or at least doing the very best we can do to achieve them is truly imperative.

It would also make the United States a credible partner in fighting global warming with the rest of the world. It would be nice to lead by example instead of dragging our feet.

Doing these things also will clearly increase our National Security and improve our international balance of payments. The billions of dollars these actions can save in money spent to buy oil overseas times the coming increase in oil prices make this economically essential.

Simply put, if we take these actions, peak oil will challenge our economy but leave it functioning. If we do not, peak oil will slam our economy so hard the depression of the 1930’s will seem mild by comparison.