Renewable energy & electric transport....

Today's post: Wednesday, 8-12-2009

We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.

At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both.

Electricity generated by solar or wind power or by using heat from geothermal energy to generate electricity AND electricity generated by nuclear power all avoid releasing CO2 and using oil.

(If coal to generate electricity can be burned in a way that allows the CO2 to be sequestered or converted to biofuel that also would replace oil and allow for more electric transport. Very soon electricity generated from coal and nuclear will cost more than from solar and wind. But now it may cost slightly less; and clean coal and nuclear will need less new transmission lines as they are or can be located next to existing transmission lines.)

That puts a very high premium on electric and/or plug-in hybrid cars and trucks and on electrically powered mass transit and trains.

And to build such cars and trucks and to allow electricity needed but not currently being generated by wind or solar or to allow excess electricity generated by wind or solar at other times to be stored all require reliable, fast charging, batteries that tend not to wear out or to require replacement only after extended use.

Also, for transport, having light and compact batteries is very important.

From large companies such as SONY to smaller startups such as Tesla and Imara Corporation in the Silicon Valley and in other parts of the world, many companies are working on such improved battery technology. (Mobile electronic devices share similar battery needs with the battery needs of electric transport. So battery advances for either use may well be used by the other use as well.) We may also see the use of combinations of capacitors that can be very rapidly charged and discharged with relatively faster discharging and charging batteries that are changed more often with batteries that discharge and charge more slowly but last far longer.

In addition, the electricity for this transport will begin to need more electricity generation which increases the need for a massive increase in solar and wind and new smart grid transmission lines to connect these new sources to users. In the earlier stages this need will fortunately be less acute since car batteries in electric cars and plug in hybrids can be charged at hours of the day other uses tend to be at their lowest so existing generation capacity can be used.

Tesla, with its good looking model S all electric sedan and GM with its plug in hybrid Volt are pioneering this market. But in the same way most car companies now make hybrid cars, soon most car companies will make all electric cars or plug-in hybrids or both.

So, it looks like the market for batteries to go in these cars looks like it will be very, very big within 2 to 5 years and then grow even more.

Why start now on a national smart grid....

Today’s post: Wednesday, 3-25-2009

It’s imperative that we begin work on a well run and extensive national electrical transmission grid now.

Doing a good job of this is as important to our future prosperity as the Interstate highway system was in its day.

A national electricity transmission grid is now being considered in part to help us best develop & use large and multiple locations and sources for renewable energy.

There are actually five reasons for this.:

1. Some of the best locations with the most renewable energy potential are NOT now served with electrical transmission lines.

2. Many of the best locations with the most renewable energy potential are located far from the residences and businesses that will most need their output and the transmission lines between them are not yet built.

3. With the very large numbers of small sources of renewably generated electricity we expect to develop, we need to have some way of distributing the electricity to the locations that most need them at any particular point in time. This is related to the previous point; but will also be important for smaller sources in areas that already have transmission to help balance the supply and demand between parts of the existing transmission grid that are not now connected.

4. Particularly for solar generated electricity it will be important to be able to send electricity from areas still getting plenty of sunshine to areas far away where the sun has already set and lighting is needed. Large scale solar thermal sources in the Southwestern United States and in Mexico CAN efficiently save the heat for many hours after the sun goes down to aid in this process; but we will need to add the transmission lines to those areas and be able to send electricity East across all the time zones of the United States to enhance this capacity and extend the hours of the day we can use this renewable energy in our East coast cities.
5. Some areas of the United States have more people and businesses than good locations for renewable energy.

In short, to be able to have renewable energy come as close as possible to providing all our electricity it’s imperative we have this national transmission grid.

I’ve read that some people are saying that instead of building this grid system, we should develop multiple sources of renewable energy that are already near the populations they will serve and quite close to existing transmission lines to get usable renewable energy in place soon.

What they are in favor of doing is totally and absolutely correct and desirable. To provide energy independence and cut the use of fossil fuels that emit CO2 the air can’t safely handle any more, we need exactly that very fast start and we need it immediately.

Further, if all 50 states had good feed-in tariffs in place (see last week’s post) we would already be doing just that all over the US.

But that leaves as much as 60 % of the available renewable energy undeveloped and unused if that’s ALL we do.

If we start now on the national transmission grid, in 10 to 20 years we will have this other renewable energy available. And, we cannot afford to wait longer for it if we are to stop the worsening of global warming and continue to wind down the use of fossil fuels without starving our economy for energy or running up its cost enough to cause economic slowdowns.

Last but far from least, since this is an investment that will produce positive returns, the jobs that building the national transmission grid will produce have an extra justification; but in addition to that, what makes doing this now so valuable now is that having those jobs begin to come online in the next one to three years will help reverse our current recession.

So, in my view, on practically every point, the national transmission grid is something we should begin to build immediately.