Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids headed for the mainstream....
Today's post: Wednesday, 3-2-2010
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 3 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post:
Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids headed for the mainstream....
Even if we are not yet at peak oil or it’s more than 3 years off, relying on it for transport is becoming dramatically riskier.
The oil it is inexpensive to extract is mostly gone. And, as the population grows and the economies of the world’s countries improve, the demand for transport will continue to increase. While most transport has been powered by oil, that increase in demand has led to increased oil prices.
But now that we have added political turmoil in the oil producing countries in the Middle East and elsewhere, supply of oil may drop or suddenly be less available.
Five to ten dollar a gallon prices for gasoline and for diesel fuel in the United States are on their way.
Even without global warming considerations, that means that depending on oil to power transport is a very bad idea because it threatens sudden and continuing cost increases for transport throughout the world’s economy. It can even lead to rationing of fuel and periodic shut downs of fuel.
This will be economically disastrous if when that happens we have too little ability to power transport by other means.
Further, since the United States imports a huge percentage of its oil supply – and mostly from areas increasingly unstable politically, if we can manage to cut our use of oil in half or more by using other power sources for transport, our national security and economic stability will be dramatically better.
Lastly, the billions of dollars now leaving the United States to pay for imported oil will stop leaving.
The combination of these literally means that the future health of the economy of the United States quite literally depends on switching away from oil as a way to power transport.
All-electric cars and plug-in hybrids – and hopefully soon trucks as well – are rapidly on their way to becoming a solution to this and entering the mainstream.
Soon gasoline only or diesel only vehicles will become a tiny minority of those sold.
Increasingly, major car makers all over the world are well on their way to introducing practical all electric cars and plug-in hybrids. This has become so much the case that developments in this area are hard to keep up with as they are increasing and picking up speed and momentum. Tesla is leading the way. But nearly every other car manufacturer in the world is racing to follow on if not will all electric cars with plug-in hybrids. As this rolls out, the added costs for such cars will gradually decrease due to the increasing volume and economies of scale.
Technology to make such cars go farther and cost less with lower weight batteries and increases in efficiency in electric power grids and uses are in rapid development.
And, most of what were thought to be problems for deploying such vehicles are not serious or rapidly being solved.
Here are some examples:
Envia Systems Inc of Newark, California has a new joint venture deal with GM. (GM Ventures Makes Strategic Investment in Envia Systems Jan 26, 2011 This was part of a funding round of $17 million.) "Envia's advanced cathode technology uses inexpensive materials that store more energy per unit of mass than current cathode materials. Since the cathode is a key driver for the overall battery cost, the more energy the cathode delivers, the lower the battery cost because fewer cells are needed." Their website also notes this will allow for lighter weight battery packs.
D r. Yi Cui of Stanford University discovered that silicon nanowires could form a potent and reliable lithium-ion anode material with the ability to improve anode capacity by up to 10X. His breakthrough was published in Nature Nanotechnology and is one of very few readily implementable lithium-ion battery technologies. Use of silicon nanowires can immediately increase the energy capacity of batteries by 40% and more thus increasing the range of electric vehicles by a similar amount. "
Amprius Inc of Menlo Park, California is a development stage company working to turn this discovery into usable products to achieve this result.
This literally could mean battery packs providing a 20% longer range and nearly a 15% drop in battery pack weight at the same time.
What if we could suddenly add such dramatic increases in efficiency in transporting electricity and changing from alternating current to direct current or the reverse that we would add the equivalent of 300 new coal fired power plants without adding new plants to generate electricity of any kind?
That would certainly allow for powering a lot of electric and plug in hybrids!
Transphorm in Goleta, California near Santa Barbara is developing a technology to do just that.
"Transphorm is redefining power conversion. Leveraging breakthroughs in modern materials and unmatched expertise, Transphorm's ultra-efficient power modules eliminate up to 90% of all electric conversion losses. From HVACs to hybrids; servers to solar panels - Transphorm enables significant energy savings across the grid."
GreenTech Media's coverage of Transphorm notes that there are several steps not yet done that would be needed to move this technology into large scale use enough to achieve this result.
But since the technology works, the money to be made by doing so and the need to do it are such that I think these steps will be taken successfully.
What about other problems?
Here’s a recent article from the Sierra club and my comments on each of their points.:
Electric Vehicles: Myths vs. Reality
Myth 1: Switching to an electric vehicle will just mean that the same amount of pollution comes from the electricity generation rather than from the tailpipe — I'll just be switching from oil to coal.
Reality: According to a range of studies, an electric car leads to 35 to 60% less carbon dioxide pollution from electricity than the CO2 pollution from the oil of a conventional car with an internal combustion engine.[1][2][3]
In some areas, like many on the West Coast that rely largely on wind or hydro power, the emissions are significantly lower for EVs. And that's today. As we retire more coal plants and bring cleaner sources of power online, the emissions from electric vehicle charging drop even further. Additionally, in some areas, night-time charging will increase the opportunity to take advantage of wind power -- another way to reduce emissions.
A caveat to consider, according to some studies, is that when coal plants supply the majority of the power mix in a given area, electric vehicles may emit more CO2 and SO2….
(My comments on this point: That’s an air pollution and CO2 release objection which is valid in and of itself. But they leave out some key points. This still means moving away from oil to powering transport with other sources. And, although increased costs of operating coal fired plants due to regulation and the need to install less polluting systems to retrofit these plants will occur, it will be far more predictable and slower than the price run up in oil. And, the United States HAS enough coal and need not send money out of the country as it is now doing by importing oil. We can afford the regulations and these upgrades with the money electric cars and hybrids will save us in paying higher and higher prices to import oil that we no longer will need to pay.)
Myth 2: Plug-in cars will lead to the production of more coal and nuclear plants.
Reality: Even if the majority of drivers switched to electric, the existing electrical grid's off-peak/nighttime capacity for power generation is sufficient without building a single new power plant.
Studies have shown that electric vehicle owners will largely charge their vehicles at night when there is plenty of capacity on the grid. In some areas, new "smart charging" allows you and the utility to set up a system by which you and other electricity users distribute the load evenly during charging so that the system is not overwhelmed by increased demand.
(My comment: Mid-day charging also lends itself to using solar power for the source of the electricity and will be used to do so in my view. So much of the potential need for more coal and nuclear plants will be removed by this.)
Myth 3: Electric car batteries pose a recycling problem.
Reality: Internal combustion engine vehicles use lead-acid batteries, and their recycle rate is about 98% in the US.
The newer batteries for electric vehicles, such as those made of lithium-ion, include even more valuable and recyclable metals and will have a life well beyond the vehicle. In fact, a Belgian company plans to use Tesla Motor's electric vehicle battery pack material to produce an alloy it can further refine into cobalt, nickel, and other valuable metals as well as special grades of concrete. Technology will soon allow for EV batteries to store energy produced by solar or wind power.
Myth 4: My electricity bill will go way up.
Reality: While you'll spend more on electricity, the savings on gas will more than cover it. If you drive a pure battery electric vehicle 12,000 miles a year at current electricity rates (assuming $.12 per kilowatt hour though rates vary throughout the country), you'll pay about $389 per year for the electricity to charge your battery, but you'll save about $1200 in gas (assuming $3 per gallon, a 30 miles per gallon vehicle, and 12,000 miles driven). So $1200 minus $389 equals $811 in savings -a 68% reduction in fueling costs. Some utilities are offering EV owners lower off-peak/nighttime rates. The more we successfully advocate for these off-peak incentives, the lower your electricity payments will go.
(Gasoline is already headed to $5 a gallon and soon after that we may see $10 a gallon. That means the savings per month will begin to approach the monthly payment needed to by an electric or plug-in hybrid car!)
Myth 5: Electric vehicles will just fail again like they did before.
Reality: Manufacturers are serious this time -- rolling out more than a dozen new plug-in models in the next couple of years, starting now. With higher gas prices and climate change worrying many consumers, stricter fuel economy standards for new vehicles required of auto manufacturers, and billions of public and corporate dollars being spent on an EV infrastructure and research in the US, EVs are here to stay.
Myth 6: My battery will run out of juice.
Reality: The majority of drivers in the US drive less than 35 miles each day, sufficient for a fully charged pure electric vehicle (most can go 80 to 140 miles on one charge), and an extended range electric vehicle (that drives about 35 miles on electric and then the gasoline power kicks in).
Using a 220-volt outlet and charging station, a plug-in hybrid recharges in about 100 minutes, an extended range plug-in electric in about four hours, and a pure electric in six to eight hours. A regular 110-volt outlet will mean significantly longer charging times, but for plug-in hybrids and extended range electrics, this outlet may be sufficient. Most of the time, the battery will not be empty when you plug in, thus reducing charging time.
Most people will charge at home. However, some businesses and public entities are beginning to install 220-volt public chargers. Some are installing fast-charging stations along highways and in public places that can re-charge a car to 80% of battery capacity in less than 30 minutes.
(Increases in range compared with these numbers due to better battery technology and customer demand are also quite likely in my opinion – for both all electric and plug-in hybrid cars. And, for plug-in hybrids as gasoline prices go much higher or begin to be erratic in supply on occasion, the demand for increased range will also go up as well.)
Myth 7: Electric vehicles are much more expensive than traditional vehicles.
Reality: While the initial sticker price of EVs is higher than traditional vehicles, you need to do the math to account for a variety of factors. For individual consumers, there is currently a federal tax credit of up to $7,500 for the purchase of an electric vehicle, as well as a partial federal credit for the charging unit. Several states have additional tax credits on top of the federal ones. Additionally, the average EV driver will save more than $800 a year in fuel (the cost of electricity compared to gasoline).
Due to a cleaner, more streamlined system under the hood, an EV may save the average driver about 46% in annual maintenance costs, according to one federal government study.[5]
(Larger and larger savings for oil base fuel and less time and money spent each year in the shop, will begin to give “EV’s” a net cost ADVANTAGE. Meanwhile, they will begin to cost less!)
Myth 8: Electric vehicles are only available in California.
Reality: While EVs are not yet available for purchase in every state, they are quickly becoming available in many. The fully electric Nissan Leaf is being sold to customers in California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, and Tennessee. The Chevy Volt, an extended range plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, is currently being sold at select dealerships in California, Connecticut, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Texas, and Washington, DC. Customers in nearly all states are expected to be able to purchase or lease a Leaf, Volt, or plug-in Toyota Prius by late 2011 or early 2012. The Tesla Roadster, a fully electric luxury sportscar, is available in several locations throughout the country. By 2012, many other models will become available nationwide, including the Ford Focus EV, Tesla Model S, and the Mitsubishi iMiev.
Myth 9: Charging an EV on solar power is a futuristic dream.
Reality: The technology to power your EV with solar power is already available. The investment in solar panels pays off faster when the solar power is not only replacing grid electricity, but replacing much more expensive gasoline.
According to Plug-In America, EVs typically travel three to four miles (or more) per kWh (kilowatt hour) of electricity. If you drive 12,000 miles per year, you will need 3,000-4,000 kWh. Depending on where you live, you will need a 1.5kW-3kW photovoltaic (PV) system to generate that much power using about 150 to 300 square feet of space on your roof. Utility credits for the daytime solar power can offset the cost of charging the car at night. If solar PV isn't feasible at your home, find out if your utility offers a green energy option.
(Here in the Silicon Valley, electrical engineers have already begun to retrofit existing cars to become all electric and powering them from solar arrays on their homes!
When gasoline prices recently spiked to over $4.60 a gallon they had no increased costs at all!
And, as solar and premade EV’s drop in cost, this will become a very popular option. 300 square feet (or even 600 square feet for two cars) is NOT that big a collector. 20 feet by 15 feet or 20 feet by 30 feet will fit on most roofs with space left over!)
It all adds up to an interesting ride as EV’s become the mainstream kind of cars and trucks people buy and drive!
Showing posts with label plug-in hybrids. Show all posts
Showing posts with label plug-in hybrids. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Good & much better news for Renewable Energy....
Today's post: Wednesday, 11-17-2010
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 4 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post: Good & much better news for Renewable Energy
1. Two trends look to intersect soon. There is a consistent push now to make solar more efficient and cost effective. And, due to increased demand for natural gas to make electricity for many reasons and the increased cost of acquiring it from shale without grave environmental damage, natural gas will gradually increase in price.
One company of the many that will likely get into this side of solar that already has a developed technology is Cogenra Solar of Mountain View, CA. Of the solar energy striking solar collectors, most of the 80 to 85% of it NOT used to make electricity is heat and is wasted by most solar collectors. Cogenra arrays make electricity and use the heat to make hot water. And the company claims to produce five times the useful energy as other solar collectors by doing so.
This combination, CEO Gilad Almogy says, enables them to beat current utility prices at today’s rates!
They’ve also found a way to do this with off the shelf components and can already begin to deliver systems. Since this is the case, they charge for the electricity and hot water they deliver rather than for the systems they install.
2. The even better news is in two parts.
A. The Boston Consulting Group released a study, “What’s next for Alternative Energy, “ a week ago today that said that cellulosic ethanol, wind farms, and large scale solar power plants are very soon to be competitive with fossil fuels without the need for subsidies. They said that this point will be reached much sooner than many people yet realize it will.
Cellulosic ethanol will become cost competitive by next year to four years from now, 2014. And, by 2020, 10 years from now, they see electricity generated from natural gas close to 9 cents per kilowatt hour and rising with solar electricity from large solar plants or farms to be at about the same price and falling.
They also see electric cars being up to 10 % of all new car sales by 2020.
Hopefully they are right on the first set of things.
But I think they may be far too conservative about electric car sales, particularly since plug-in hybrids in normal use, are likely to be over 90% electric powered.
In addition to the very large numbers of auto makers gearing up to make such cars, the next news today, suggests this trend may well accelerate.
B. Two stories recently show that GE is already very actively acting as a catalyst to make this trend speed up.
1) Last Friday, they announced plans to buy 25,000 electric cars by 2015, just five years from now – starting with 12,000 from GM next year.
It seems that GE build natural gas-fired generators for utilities and a home charging station they call the WattStation. GE also makes advanced design electric motors and sees this combined group of products as bringing them $500 million in revenue in just the next three years.
2) Today, the San Francisco Chronicle business section has a story that GE and a group of venture capital firms will invest $55 million in several start ups with some kind of smart grid technologies. The companies chosen were judged on whether or not they would contribute to a smarter electric grid, reduce energy use in buildings, &/or recharge electric cars and plug-in hybrids. Further, this effort will total about $200 million with about half of it from GE and the other half from the venture firms.
These developments are quite significant for several reasons.
First, virtually all clean energy except biofuels and cellulosic alcohol is used to generate electricity – from solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, wind, geothermal, and even nuclear power. None of these releases CO2 while they generate electricity.
Second, Bloom Energy has a product that makes electricity from natural gas with fuel cells that is more efficient than burning it and that produces no air pollution.
Third, running an electric car using even electricity made in coal fired plants releases less CO2 than the same car would release while burning gasoline.
Fourth, none of these energy sources for the electricity for electric cars and plug-in hybrids requires oil!
For the strength of the economy of the United States and its national security, this is extremely important news.
Today's post: Wednesday, 11-17-2010
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 4 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post: Good & much better news for Renewable Energy
1. Two trends look to intersect soon. There is a consistent push now to make solar more efficient and cost effective. And, due to increased demand for natural gas to make electricity for many reasons and the increased cost of acquiring it from shale without grave environmental damage, natural gas will gradually increase in price.
One company of the many that will likely get into this side of solar that already has a developed technology is Cogenra Solar of Mountain View, CA. Of the solar energy striking solar collectors, most of the 80 to 85% of it NOT used to make electricity is heat and is wasted by most solar collectors. Cogenra arrays make electricity and use the heat to make hot water. And the company claims to produce five times the useful energy as other solar collectors by doing so.
This combination, CEO Gilad Almogy says, enables them to beat current utility prices at today’s rates!
They’ve also found a way to do this with off the shelf components and can already begin to deliver systems. Since this is the case, they charge for the electricity and hot water they deliver rather than for the systems they install.
2. The even better news is in two parts.
A. The Boston Consulting Group released a study, “What’s next for Alternative Energy, “ a week ago today that said that cellulosic ethanol, wind farms, and large scale solar power plants are very soon to be competitive with fossil fuels without the need for subsidies. They said that this point will be reached much sooner than many people yet realize it will.
Cellulosic ethanol will become cost competitive by next year to four years from now, 2014. And, by 2020, 10 years from now, they see electricity generated from natural gas close to 9 cents per kilowatt hour and rising with solar electricity from large solar plants or farms to be at about the same price and falling.
They also see electric cars being up to 10 % of all new car sales by 2020.
Hopefully they are right on the first set of things.
But I think they may be far too conservative about electric car sales, particularly since plug-in hybrids in normal use, are likely to be over 90% electric powered.
In addition to the very large numbers of auto makers gearing up to make such cars, the next news today, suggests this trend may well accelerate.
B. Two stories recently show that GE is already very actively acting as a catalyst to make this trend speed up.
1) Last Friday, they announced plans to buy 25,000 electric cars by 2015, just five years from now – starting with 12,000 from GM next year.
It seems that GE build natural gas-fired generators for utilities and a home charging station they call the WattStation. GE also makes advanced design electric motors and sees this combined group of products as bringing them $500 million in revenue in just the next three years.
2) Today, the San Francisco Chronicle business section has a story that GE and a group of venture capital firms will invest $55 million in several start ups with some kind of smart grid technologies. The companies chosen were judged on whether or not they would contribute to a smarter electric grid, reduce energy use in buildings, &/or recharge electric cars and plug-in hybrids. Further, this effort will total about $200 million with about half of it from GE and the other half from the venture firms.
These developments are quite significant for several reasons.
First, virtually all clean energy except biofuels and cellulosic alcohol is used to generate electricity – from solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, wind, geothermal, and even nuclear power. None of these releases CO2 while they generate electricity.
Second, Bloom Energy has a product that makes electricity from natural gas with fuel cells that is more efficient than burning it and that produces no air pollution.
Third, running an electric car using even electricity made in coal fired plants releases less CO2 than the same car would release while burning gasoline.
Fourth, none of these energy sources for the electricity for electric cars and plug-in hybrids requires oil!
For the strength of the economy of the United States and its national security, this is extremely important news.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Electric Transport is beginning to happen....
Today's post: Wednesday, 7-21-2010
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 4 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post:
Electric transport is beginning to happen.
1. Tesla is beginning to look like it will successfully become an established car company making upscale electric cars similar to what Audi or Acura or BMW does now for gasoline powered cars. They also have technology they will share with larger car companies.
2. Within five years it looks as if all the following major car companies will make all electric or plug-in hybrid cars that run over 90 % of the time as electric cars.:
Toyota; Honda; Nissan; and Mitsubishi from Japan.
Ford and Chevrolet in the United States.
And, just yesterday, I found out the Volkswagen is making a serious effort to become a leading manufacturer of electric cars.
3. And, if you didn’t see it, this was in our post 3 weeks ago:
And, that’s not all. Coulomb Technologies is developing multiple ways to support building networks of charging stations for electric and plug-in hybrids. They have a large deal with Ford and also are ready to support the Nissan Leaf and are working with Siemens to support an EV (electric vehicle) Siemens is developing.
A company called Better Place is setting up a combination of fast charging stations and electric cars that work with them in several places.
And, Amprius in the Silicon Valley says they have a technology to increase the charge lithium batteries can take and deliver by 40%. If they do and get it into production, that will either increase the range cars can drive using only electricity or lower the cost and weight of their battery packs or both.
And there are also many new advanced technology battery companies as well. These include A123 Systems and Boston Power both in Boston plus the high technology battery companies in China that venture capitalist, John Doerr says are doing well despite very little coverage here.
There’s good news and bad news in this.
The best news is that this will dramatically cut our dependence on and use of fuels from petroleum. It will lower the maintenance cost of transport and driving because electric cars are simpler and far less complex than internal combustion engines.
Since peak oil and price run ups in fuels from petroleum look likely within that same timeframe or soon after it, this transition will really help our economy.
The bad news is that it may make our transport systems vulnerable to solar electromagnetic storms which have melted telegraph wires in the past.
But the likely bad news is that it will put a lot of pressure on the utility companies to generate and deliver more electricity. Some powering of electric cars can be done with existing generation facilities at night when the demand for electricity for lighting, business, and air conditioning is far less.
But it also means that more natural gas and coal will be burned to generate electricity.
All of this makes development of clean energy sources of electricity such as photovoltaic solar, thermal solar, and wind –and -- cleaner and more efficient ways to generate electricity from natural gas and coal even more important than they are now. And, it will increase the demands to build more nuclear plants to generate electricity.
Today's post: Wednesday, 7-21-2010
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both. Kuwaiti scientists recently predicted peak oil in 2014 – just 4 years from now.
And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.
Today’s post:
Electric transport is beginning to happen.
1. Tesla is beginning to look like it will successfully become an established car company making upscale electric cars similar to what Audi or Acura or BMW does now for gasoline powered cars. They also have technology they will share with larger car companies.
2. Within five years it looks as if all the following major car companies will make all electric or plug-in hybrid cars that run over 90 % of the time as electric cars.:
Toyota; Honda; Nissan; and Mitsubishi from Japan.
Ford and Chevrolet in the United States.
And, just yesterday, I found out the Volkswagen is making a serious effort to become a leading manufacturer of electric cars.
3. And, if you didn’t see it, this was in our post 3 weeks ago:
And, that’s not all. Coulomb Technologies is developing multiple ways to support building networks of charging stations for electric and plug-in hybrids. They have a large deal with Ford and also are ready to support the Nissan Leaf and are working with Siemens to support an EV (electric vehicle) Siemens is developing.
A company called Better Place is setting up a combination of fast charging stations and electric cars that work with them in several places.
And, Amprius in the Silicon Valley says they have a technology to increase the charge lithium batteries can take and deliver by 40%. If they do and get it into production, that will either increase the range cars can drive using only electricity or lower the cost and weight of their battery packs or both.
And there are also many new advanced technology battery companies as well. These include A123 Systems and Boston Power both in Boston plus the high technology battery companies in China that venture capitalist, John Doerr says are doing well despite very little coverage here.
There’s good news and bad news in this.
The best news is that this will dramatically cut our dependence on and use of fuels from petroleum. It will lower the maintenance cost of transport and driving because electric cars are simpler and far less complex than internal combustion engines.
Since peak oil and price run ups in fuels from petroleum look likely within that same timeframe or soon after it, this transition will really help our economy.
The bad news is that it may make our transport systems vulnerable to solar electromagnetic storms which have melted telegraph wires in the past.
But the likely bad news is that it will put a lot of pressure on the utility companies to generate and deliver more electricity. Some powering of electric cars can be done with existing generation facilities at night when the demand for electricity for lighting, business, and air conditioning is far less.
But it also means that more natural gas and coal will be burned to generate electricity.
All of this makes development of clean energy sources of electricity such as photovoltaic solar, thermal solar, and wind –and -- cleaner and more efficient ways to generate electricity from natural gas and coal even more important than they are now. And, it will increase the demands to build more nuclear plants to generate electricity.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Renewable energy & electric transport....
Today's post: Wednesday, 8-12-2009
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both.
Electricity generated by solar or wind power or by using heat from geothermal energy to generate electricity AND electricity generated by nuclear power all avoid releasing CO2 and using oil.
(If coal to generate electricity can be burned in a way that allows the CO2 to be sequestered or converted to biofuel that also would replace oil and allow for more electric transport. Very soon electricity generated from coal and nuclear will cost more than from solar and wind. But now it may cost slightly less; and clean coal and nuclear will need less new transmission lines as they are or can be located next to existing transmission lines.)
That puts a very high premium on electric and/or plug-in hybrid cars and trucks and on electrically powered mass transit and trains.
And to build such cars and trucks and to allow electricity needed but not currently being generated by wind or solar or to allow excess electricity generated by wind or solar at other times to be stored all require reliable, fast charging, batteries that tend not to wear out or to require replacement only after extended use.
Also, for transport, having light and compact batteries is very important.
From large companies such as SONY to smaller startups such as Tesla and Imara Corporation in the Silicon Valley and in other parts of the world, many companies are working on such improved battery technology. (Mobile electronic devices share similar battery needs with the battery needs of electric transport. So battery advances for either use may well be used by the other use as well.) We may also see the use of combinations of capacitors that can be very rapidly charged and discharged with relatively faster discharging and charging batteries that are changed more often with batteries that discharge and charge more slowly but last far longer.
In addition, the electricity for this transport will begin to need more electricity generation which increases the need for a massive increase in solar and wind and new smart grid transmission lines to connect these new sources to users. In the earlier stages this need will fortunately be less acute since car batteries in electric cars and plug in hybrids can be charged at hours of the day other uses tend to be at their lowest so existing generation capacity can be used.
Tesla, with its good looking model S all electric sedan and GM with its plug in hybrid Volt are pioneering this market. But in the same way most car companies now make hybrid cars, soon most car companies will make all electric cars or plug-in hybrids or both.
So, it looks like the market for batteries to go in these cars looks like it will be very, very big within 2 to 5 years and then grow even more.
Today's post: Wednesday, 8-12-2009
We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.
At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both.
Electricity generated by solar or wind power or by using heat from geothermal energy to generate electricity AND electricity generated by nuclear power all avoid releasing CO2 and using oil.
(If coal to generate electricity can be burned in a way that allows the CO2 to be sequestered or converted to biofuel that also would replace oil and allow for more electric transport. Very soon electricity generated from coal and nuclear will cost more than from solar and wind. But now it may cost slightly less; and clean coal and nuclear will need less new transmission lines as they are or can be located next to existing transmission lines.)
That puts a very high premium on electric and/or plug-in hybrid cars and trucks and on electrically powered mass transit and trains.
And to build such cars and trucks and to allow electricity needed but not currently being generated by wind or solar or to allow excess electricity generated by wind or solar at other times to be stored all require reliable, fast charging, batteries that tend not to wear out or to require replacement only after extended use.
Also, for transport, having light and compact batteries is very important.
From large companies such as SONY to smaller startups such as Tesla and Imara Corporation in the Silicon Valley and in other parts of the world, many companies are working on such improved battery technology. (Mobile electronic devices share similar battery needs with the battery needs of electric transport. So battery advances for either use may well be used by the other use as well.) We may also see the use of combinations of capacitors that can be very rapidly charged and discharged with relatively faster discharging and charging batteries that are changed more often with batteries that discharge and charge more slowly but last far longer.
In addition, the electricity for this transport will begin to need more electricity generation which increases the need for a massive increase in solar and wind and new smart grid transmission lines to connect these new sources to users. In the earlier stages this need will fortunately be less acute since car batteries in electric cars and plug in hybrids can be charged at hours of the day other uses tend to be at their lowest so existing generation capacity can be used.
Tesla, with its good looking model S all electric sedan and GM with its plug in hybrid Volt are pioneering this market. But in the same way most car companies now make hybrid cars, soon most car companies will make all electric cars or plug-in hybrids or both.
So, it looks like the market for batteries to go in these cars looks like it will be very, very big within 2 to 5 years and then grow even more.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Good & bad news on electric cars....
Today’s post: Weds, 4-16-2008
I very much approve of Tesla Motors & the rationale on their website that guides their car designs. (See http://www.teslamotors.com/ .)
They understand why electric cars are important for advancing renewable energy & turning off our reliance on oil. And, they realize that electric cars will only succeed in the marketplace if people want to drive them.
I’d love it if they start selling truckloads of their cars & would like that to be soon.
However, they have not yet gone into full production on their first car, the sports roadster, & have not yet begun making their second car that will have a larger market since it is an upscale sedan.
So when I read earlier today that another company, Fisker Coach Build of Irvine in California was developing a good looking plug-in hybrid & that the two companies are suing each other, I was both delighted to see more electric cars that people would want to drive enter the market & sad that the management time of these two companies was going to these legal hassles. Unfortunately, it may add delays to their cars getting into full production as soon as I’d like for both companies.
That said, unlike Tesla, Fisker cars are not yet at all well known.
So, here’s what I’ve found out about the Fisker cars.:
I did read that they will have up to a 40 mile all electric range. That would make them effectively all electric for many people. And it would make them all electric for morning commutes for almost everyone who drives them. Driving one would slash gasoline use in virtually every case. This is not quite as good as the Tesla or Miles cars but is very close.
The company is called Fisker Automotive. I didn’t enter their website as it requires one to install flash which I detest.
But I found this: http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=122489
"Fisker Automotive: New Plug-in Hybrid Maker
Date posted: 09-05-2007 IRVINE, Calif. - Betting that they can beat bureaucracy-burdened major automakers to market with today's hottest new green-car technology, a pair of Southern California automotive firms will announce plans today for a new, American-made plug-in hybrid car to go on sale by 2010.
The companies, Fisker Coachbuild LLC and Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide, both located in Irvine, will form a joint venture to design, build and market the car, said spokeswoman Cristina Cheever. The new company will be called Fisker Automotive.
Its plug-in hybrid will team an internal combustion engine and a battery-based electric drive system that can be recharged from the commercial grid via common 110-volt household current.
Details and performance figures, including range on all-electric drive, are being kept under wraps, but Cheever said the new vehicles would handily outperform the 8-mile all-electric range Toyota is promising for its next-generation Prius plug-in hybrid, a 2009 model.
General Motors has said it will bring an extended-range Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid, with 40 miles of all-electric range, to market by 2010 and will sell it for under $30,000. Ford also has shown a concept plug-in hybrid but has not said when, or whether, it will build the vehicle.
Design and technology development for the Fisker plug-in are underway and a working preproduction prototype will be unveiled in January at the 2008 Detroit Auto Show, Cheever said.
The car, to be designed by Fisker Coachbuild, would sell for under $100,000 and plans call for initial annual production of 15,000 vehicles, Cheever said.
Fisker Automotive will contract with an existing private manufacturer to build its cars, she said.
Henrik Fisker, the former BMW and Aston Martin designer and chairman of Fisker Coachbuild, will head Fisker Automotive's management team.
Privately owned Fisker Coachbuild designs and installs new coachwork and interiors for high-end BMW and Mercedes-Benz models, creating rebodied exotics in the manner of the custom coachbuilders of the early 1900s who created new sheet metal for all types of luxury cars including Bugattis, Cadillacs and Rolls-Royces. The company won't release sales data but says it has delivered 13 of its Tramonto convertibles and Latigo coupes (based, respectively, on the Mercedes-Benz SL and BMW 6 Series.)
Quantum, which owns several chassis-building companies and specializes in clean propulsion and fuel and energy storage technologies, is developing the plug-in power plant and drive system for the Fisker. The company has built plug-in hybrid conversions of the Ford Escape Hybrid for the Southern California Air Quality Management District.
What this means to you: If you've got the bucks, you could be zooming by decade's end in an earth-friendly exotic car with substantial all-electric range while your neighbor is still putting along in a Prius."
(The article in today’s paper said their car will sell for about $80,000.)
& I found this on Wikipedia:
“Fisker Automotive From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Fisker Automotive is a joint venture between Fisker Coachbuild and Quantum Technologies.
All models will feature a cutting-edge plug-in hybrid technology named "Quantum Drive", developed by Quantum Technologies exclusively for Fisker Automotive. This all-new plug–in Quantum Drive chassis layout will allow Fisker to design innovative luxury cars with uncompromised proportions.
The Fisker Karma is a plug-in hybrid electric sportscar shown at the North American International Auto Show in January 2008.”
X* X* X* X*
I wish both companies the best & hope they both sell a lot of cars.
In addition, I hope their electric car & plug-in hybrid car technologies make their way quickly into less expensive, even more widely sold cars.
This may happen through licensing by larger car companies or by those companies rapidly rolling out their own versions. It might even happen by these two companies doing it themselves if they do well enough.
It will definitely open the marketplace to truly green cars that can run all or mostly on renewable energy & begin to help us get off of using oil to power our driving.
Today’s post: Weds, 4-16-2008
I very much approve of Tesla Motors & the rationale on their website that guides their car designs. (See http://www.teslamotors.com/ .)
They understand why electric cars are important for advancing renewable energy & turning off our reliance on oil. And, they realize that electric cars will only succeed in the marketplace if people want to drive them.
I’d love it if they start selling truckloads of their cars & would like that to be soon.
However, they have not yet gone into full production on their first car, the sports roadster, & have not yet begun making their second car that will have a larger market since it is an upscale sedan.
So when I read earlier today that another company, Fisker Coach Build of Irvine in California was developing a good looking plug-in hybrid & that the two companies are suing each other, I was both delighted to see more electric cars that people would want to drive enter the market & sad that the management time of these two companies was going to these legal hassles. Unfortunately, it may add delays to their cars getting into full production as soon as I’d like for both companies.
That said, unlike Tesla, Fisker cars are not yet at all well known.
So, here’s what I’ve found out about the Fisker cars.:
I did read that they will have up to a 40 mile all electric range. That would make them effectively all electric for many people. And it would make them all electric for morning commutes for almost everyone who drives them. Driving one would slash gasoline use in virtually every case. This is not quite as good as the Tesla or Miles cars but is very close.
The company is called Fisker Automotive. I didn’t enter their website as it requires one to install flash which I detest.
But I found this: http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/News/articleId=122489
"Fisker Automotive: New Plug-in Hybrid Maker
Date posted: 09-05-2007 IRVINE, Calif. - Betting that they can beat bureaucracy-burdened major automakers to market with today's hottest new green-car technology, a pair of Southern California automotive firms will announce plans today for a new, American-made plug-in hybrid car to go on sale by 2010.
The companies, Fisker Coachbuild LLC and Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide, both located in Irvine, will form a joint venture to design, build and market the car, said spokeswoman Cristina Cheever. The new company will be called Fisker Automotive.
Its plug-in hybrid will team an internal combustion engine and a battery-based electric drive system that can be recharged from the commercial grid via common 110-volt household current.
Details and performance figures, including range on all-electric drive, are being kept under wraps, but Cheever said the new vehicles would handily outperform the 8-mile all-electric range Toyota is promising for its next-generation Prius plug-in hybrid, a 2009 model.
General Motors has said it will bring an extended-range Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrid, with 40 miles of all-electric range, to market by 2010 and will sell it for under $30,000. Ford also has shown a concept plug-in hybrid but has not said when, or whether, it will build the vehicle.
Design and technology development for the Fisker plug-in are underway and a working preproduction prototype will be unveiled in January at the 2008 Detroit Auto Show, Cheever said.
The car, to be designed by Fisker Coachbuild, would sell for under $100,000 and plans call for initial annual production of 15,000 vehicles, Cheever said.
Fisker Automotive will contract with an existing private manufacturer to build its cars, she said.
Henrik Fisker, the former BMW and Aston Martin designer and chairman of Fisker Coachbuild, will head Fisker Automotive's management team.
Privately owned Fisker Coachbuild designs and installs new coachwork and interiors for high-end BMW and Mercedes-Benz models, creating rebodied exotics in the manner of the custom coachbuilders of the early 1900s who created new sheet metal for all types of luxury cars including Bugattis, Cadillacs and Rolls-Royces. The company won't release sales data but says it has delivered 13 of its Tramonto convertibles and Latigo coupes (based, respectively, on the Mercedes-Benz SL and BMW 6 Series.)
Quantum, which owns several chassis-building companies and specializes in clean propulsion and fuel and energy storage technologies, is developing the plug-in power plant and drive system for the Fisker. The company has built plug-in hybrid conversions of the Ford Escape Hybrid for the Southern California Air Quality Management District.
What this means to you: If you've got the bucks, you could be zooming by decade's end in an earth-friendly exotic car with substantial all-electric range while your neighbor is still putting along in a Prius."
(The article in today’s paper said their car will sell for about $80,000.)
& I found this on Wikipedia:
“Fisker Automotive From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Fisker Automotive is a joint venture between Fisker Coachbuild and Quantum Technologies.
All models will feature a cutting-edge plug-in hybrid technology named "Quantum Drive", developed by Quantum Technologies exclusively for Fisker Automotive. This all-new plug–in Quantum Drive chassis layout will allow Fisker to design innovative luxury cars with uncompromised proportions.
The Fisker Karma is a plug-in hybrid electric sportscar shown at the North American International Auto Show in January 2008.”
X* X* X* X*
I wish both companies the best & hope they both sell a lot of cars.
In addition, I hope their electric car & plug-in hybrid car technologies make their way quickly into less expensive, even more widely sold cars.
This may happen through licensing by larger car companies or by those companies rapidly rolling out their own versions. It might even happen by these two companies doing it themselves if they do well enough.
It will definitely open the marketplace to truly green cars that can run all or mostly on renewable energy & begin to help us get off of using oil to power our driving.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Forward to the Future – of cars....
Today’s post: Weds, 4-2-2008
As I see it, cars will gradually evolve to be more energy efficient & the kinds that will increasingly be our transportation will be hybrids, all electric cars, plug-in hybrids, --
& possibly fuel cell cars run on hydrogen – IF the technology for safe storage advances & if they can be fueled by using renewable or possibly nuclear power to liberate the hydrogen from water or methane.
The cars look set to appear in our marketplace in large numbers in about that order. Hybrids are here now & more will be arriving soon. Two or three all electric car models will arrive within a few more months from Tesla Motors & Miles Electric Vehicles. And, plug-in hybrids now in development will arrive soon after that.
In addition, cars will be more comfortable & safer to drive and, for energy efficiency, will tend to get lighter, more aerodynamically streamlined, -- & somewhat smaller, perhaps.
To see all of the above, but in a car a bit extreme appearance-wise, go to www.aptera.com -- This is the website of Aptera Motors.
They do not yet make a car that most people would buy or one large enough for some family’s needs.
(It is a 3 wheeled car that looks like a tiny airplane with no wings & reminds me a bit of R2D2 of StarWars with its back leaning look. And, it only holds two people. It’s well engineered NOT to be fragile in a crash but looks like it is. My personal preference is for a larger more normal looking car with 4 wheels. I prefer the look of the Honda Civic Hybrid over the Prius for example.
Some early adapters & some younger buyers WILL buy their limited production cars now. But they don’t yet have a design ready for prime time, large sales to the general public in my view.)
However, their design innovations are extremely impressive. I hope designers & executives from GM, Ford, Honda, Nissan, Chrysler, & the other, still large, car makers adapt many of them.
The bad news is the larger companies will lose market share if they don’t as the newer car companies will do so I think.
On Aptera’s website I found an article from TreeHugger, www.treehugger.com
This key paragraph describes two of the most useful & desirable innovations that any car maker could add to its cars.:
“You'll get some pretty slick features, including solar cells embedded under the roof operate an always-on climate control system, ensuring the interior never gets too hot or too cold, and a computer-controlled “Eyes Forward” vision system. By replacing the side mirrors with embedded cameras that display a 180-degree rear view in the front of the instrument panel, Eyes Forward "gives the driver complete situational awareness without taking their eyes off of the road."
These two innovations are extremely desirable features I wish our car we currently drive had now.
In addition to the added comfort of not having to get into a horribly hot car on a hot, sunny day, this system eliminates or sharply reduces the outside power needed to run the air conditioning on such days by using the available solar energy. This is something I’d like to see on all cars soon.
Secondly, highway patrol officers & car safety instructors teach to check your rear view mirrors often as you drive. Even good drivers, probably including most of the officers & instructors, have trouble remembering to do this often. And, if you do it at just the wrong time so taking your eyes away from looking forward causes you to miss a sudden threat in front of you, it can even be a bad idea sometimes.
This eyes forward TV display of what is behind you & what is in your blind spots, is a brilliant idea which solves both these problems at the same time. Good job.
It will be interesting to see how cars develop from here given all these innovations.
The good news is that a lot of these things will happen within 10 years; & most of them will happen, I think, within 30 years.
Today’s post: Weds, 4-2-2008
As I see it, cars will gradually evolve to be more energy efficient & the kinds that will increasingly be our transportation will be hybrids, all electric cars, plug-in hybrids, --
& possibly fuel cell cars run on hydrogen – IF the technology for safe storage advances & if they can be fueled by using renewable or possibly nuclear power to liberate the hydrogen from water or methane.
The cars look set to appear in our marketplace in large numbers in about that order. Hybrids are here now & more will be arriving soon. Two or three all electric car models will arrive within a few more months from Tesla Motors & Miles Electric Vehicles. And, plug-in hybrids now in development will arrive soon after that.
In addition, cars will be more comfortable & safer to drive and, for energy efficiency, will tend to get lighter, more aerodynamically streamlined, -- & somewhat smaller, perhaps.
To see all of the above, but in a car a bit extreme appearance-wise, go to www.aptera.com -- This is the website of Aptera Motors.
They do not yet make a car that most people would buy or one large enough for some family’s needs.
(It is a 3 wheeled car that looks like a tiny airplane with no wings & reminds me a bit of R2D2 of StarWars with its back leaning look. And, it only holds two people. It’s well engineered NOT to be fragile in a crash but looks like it is. My personal preference is for a larger more normal looking car with 4 wheels. I prefer the look of the Honda Civic Hybrid over the Prius for example.
Some early adapters & some younger buyers WILL buy their limited production cars now. But they don’t yet have a design ready for prime time, large sales to the general public in my view.)
However, their design innovations are extremely impressive. I hope designers & executives from GM, Ford, Honda, Nissan, Chrysler, & the other, still large, car makers adapt many of them.
The bad news is the larger companies will lose market share if they don’t as the newer car companies will do so I think.
On Aptera’s website I found an article from TreeHugger, www.treehugger.com
This key paragraph describes two of the most useful & desirable innovations that any car maker could add to its cars.:
“You'll get some pretty slick features, including solar cells embedded under the roof operate an always-on climate control system, ensuring the interior never gets too hot or too cold, and a computer-controlled “Eyes Forward” vision system. By replacing the side mirrors with embedded cameras that display a 180-degree rear view in the front of the instrument panel, Eyes Forward "gives the driver complete situational awareness without taking their eyes off of the road."
These two innovations are extremely desirable features I wish our car we currently drive had now.
In addition to the added comfort of not having to get into a horribly hot car on a hot, sunny day, this system eliminates or sharply reduces the outside power needed to run the air conditioning on such days by using the available solar energy. This is something I’d like to see on all cars soon.
Secondly, highway patrol officers & car safety instructors teach to check your rear view mirrors often as you drive. Even good drivers, probably including most of the officers & instructors, have trouble remembering to do this often. And, if you do it at just the wrong time so taking your eyes away from looking forward causes you to miss a sudden threat in front of you, it can even be a bad idea sometimes.
This eyes forward TV display of what is behind you & what is in your blind spots, is a brilliant idea which solves both these problems at the same time. Good job.
It will be interesting to see how cars develop from here given all these innovations.
The good news is that a lot of these things will happen within 10 years; & most of them will happen, I think, within 30 years.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Progress on electric cars....
Today’s post: Weds, 3-19-2008
Fossil fuel for cars & trucks is now one of our biggest uses. It definitely is the most visible one to the average person.
Biofuels are one way to power cars & trucks that will help replace fossil fuels. But initially they will be in limited supply. And, they still produce some air pollution in the cities where they are used. Using current technology, they are also mixed with fossil fuels NOT as total replacements.
Since most of the use of electricity is during the day for businesses & for air conditioning & for lighting at night before 11:30 pm & some after 4:30 am with light use from 10:30 am to 5:30 am,
there is existing electric generation capacity not now being used between about 10 PM & 6 AM, particularly between midnight & 4 am.
And, we can both use renewable sources to generate electricity and get increasingly better control of pollution generated by other, centralized sources than we can individual cars & trucks that burn fossil fuels. (As we will cover in next week’s post, some nuclear power as a transition use may also work.)
That means that a major shift to electric cars & plug-in hybrids can help free our cities of air pollution & be a major step to weaning our economy away from fossil fuels.
So drivable, acceptable, cars & trucks that run on electricity or as plug-in hybrids are an important piece of our switching to an economy that runs on renewable energy.
Plug in hybrids are coming. But real electric cars as opposed to slightly supersized golf carts may be available first.
Tesla Motors is close to production on its electric sports car. And, has plans for a sedan within a few years.
This has gotten car enthusiasts’ attention in part because the Tesla Roadster gets good enough acceleration to be very competitive with the best street racers & muscle cars.
It definitely appeals to people who want both performance and to support renewable energy & energy independence at the same time.
What may be less well known is that most electric cars will have better acceleration available at the driver’s demand than most gasoline powered cars – not just the electric sports cars.
Here are two articles relating to this theme.
The first one is about one of the more significant companies that will compete with Tesla Motors.
( I added some paragraphing to the article to emphasize some key points that I think deserve it that were made by the CEO, Jeff Boyd, who was interviewed.)
The second is about a minivan like electric car conversion.
( This article was in an online source called VentureBeat )
“Q&A with Jeff Boyd, CEO of Miles Electric Vehicle
Chris Morrison March 5th, 2008
Everyone knows the name Tesla Motors. High-profile VC fundings, a high-performance sports car and its layoffs have gotten the company endless coverage. However, there’s also a slew of lesser-known electric car companies. One of the handful with real potential (and real funding) is Miles Electric Vehicle, a Santa Monica, Calif. company with plans to release a highway-speed electric car, the XS500, in 2009.
Miles already sells a few low-speed models, but the XS500 will be the most acceptable to Americans — with a top speed of over 80mph, a range of over 120 miles, and the looks and features of a normal car, unlike some all-electric designs that many people find downright bizarre (see some examples here). The planned price is in the $35,000 to $40,000 range, cheaper than Tesla’s Whitestar, which is aiming for $50,000. The company caught my attention with a recent $15 million financing, so I called up CEO Jeff Boyd for a quick interview.
Do you think you’ll get competition from bigger companies?
We hope that there is a lot of competition. A decade ago, the all-electric car failed, for a variety of reasons.
But at this point, we’ve got the catalysts: The homeland security issue, the emissions issue — this is no longer a fad, a niche market or a matter of curiosity. We think it’s a revolution, and we hope manufacturers all over the world are working in the area.
It’s going to take a lot of work and money to make the dream come to fruition. There’s plenty of market to go after, and we anticipate being one of many.
Will you be competitive with larger automakers?
From a technology standpoint, we feel that we can compete. As far as branding and distribution, the traditional automakers are very advanced and mature. But there’s plenty of room in the market when there’s an emerging business. If you look at the US selling 16 million new cars a year, Europe doing a similar number and about 50 million total around the world, there’s no reason we shouldn’t have enough sales to make a business. We welcome competition, we want everyone to jump in so we can reduce our reliance on foreign oil and change how we handle transportation.
Tesla has taken a lot of money — nearly $150 million to date, with more than twice that planned in the future. Will you need to take less money than Tesla has to commercialize?
We don’t anticipate needing anywhere near that amount of money. Our original private funding and the first round of our equity financing looks like enough to continue research on the XS500 and expand our distribution model.
Where does design come in?
There are three keys to our business model. First and foremost, we want to be all-electric. Second, we want to be completely safe and meet all the regulations. And third, we want to be low-cost. In order to be low cost, we’ve adapted chassis that have already been manufactured. Rather than starting with a clean sheet of paper and coming out with a completely new chassis design for our low or high-speed vehicles, this is allowing us to keep our costs down. If we’re going to bring a car out that will really change our reliance on oil, it needs to be cheap. [ed. note: It’s also worth noting that Miles manufactures its vehicles on cheap production lines in China. Tesla also used a pre-existing chassis for the Roadster, but it was a very expensive model from Lotus.]
The cost is still high for the XS500 — will prices come down?
The cost of lithium ion [batteries], which is right now still a fairly expensive technology, will come down over time. We also have a five year development plan with a variety of models in it. The next model after the XS500 is a small cross-over unit that will be priced lower. Whether we can reduce the price on the XS500, we’re not sure. But even if we don’t, we’ll be bringing out lower-cost models over the next two to three years that will expand the market for all electric vehicles.”
….
“Will electric cars be competitive with plug-in hybrids?
I’m not aware of any [plug-in] hybrids that are very close to production. We’re a little over a year away, so we think we’re maybe two or three years ahead of most plug-in hybrid vehicles. We applaud the efforts of the ethanol, hybrid, hydrogen, fuel cell communities, but fundamentally, we think those are transitional technologies toward all-electric. In effect they [all-electric cars] have zero emissions.
About half of our electricity is from coal, but the technology exists to change that. It’s within our grasp to generate electricity without any emissions.
We also like all-electric because the US electric utility grid is capable of handling the charging requirements of a lot of vehicles without expanding greatly.
You took funding from a private equity firm, Angeleno Group, rather than a venture capital group. Why?
The principals [directors] of Angeleno Group have been associated with Miles Rubin [the company’s founder] for many years, so it was natural as we developed for them to reach out to us. We weren’t seeking investors, but upon engaging we were impressed with their true commitment to alternative energy. When you enter a partnership like that, it’s helpful if it goes beyond the cash infusion. If they can help with planning and business development, it can really be meaningful.
What sort of future do you envision? Acquisition, IPO, staying private?
We really don’t have any plans to do any more than continue on the path we’re on, as a private company.”
I found this info online looking for electric cars on Yahoo. I had also heard that there were Scion conversions. So far the progress has been on the boxy minivan model not the more car like Scion model. And, the conversions are a bit pricey. But it IS progress.
And, it shows what some of the potentials are for electric cars when cheaper lithium ion batteries are installed into cars as they are manufactured & the companies realize economies of scale to bring the cost down.
“Scion Electric Car Conversions”
"AC Propulsion, a California-based company that just debuted its eBox, a converted Toyota Scion xB with an electric engine. After you bring your own Scion, AC Propulsion will do the deed for $55,000. So what're the specs on the eBox? We're glad you asked: 180 mile range, top speed of 95 mph, and you can get a full charge in five hours right from your garage's wall outlet. Sure, that sounds like a lot for a car that's ordinarily pretty freakin' cheap (~ $18,000), but when you think that you'll never have to buy gas again over the life of the car, it just might be worth it."
"Sure, a few companies have recently introduced plans for two-seat electric sports cars in the $70,000-$100,000+ price range, but the eBox offers similar performance on a platform that can carry five adults. And the eBox is currently taking orders for delivery in 2007. It is true that I cannot afford $70,000 for a car right now, but if I could, I would insist on buying one that could haul my whole family of four. The eBox fits that bill without any struggle. The fact that it can blow away a Mustang GT is only icing on the cake. "
1. www.scionlife.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=152318 eBox Scion XB conversion
2. AC Propulsion's Scion xB electric car conversion keeps getting better ...
www.evworld.com/view.cfm?page=article&storyid=1172
3. AC Propulsion converts stock Scion xB into fully electric "eBox" car ...
... AcPropulsion, ebox, electric car, Electric Car, toyota scion xb, Toyota Scion Xb ... gas costs $4 per gallon, that the Scion normally gets 30 MPG, and that you drive ...
engadget.com/2006/12/11/ac-propulsion-converts-stock-scion-xb-into-fully-electric
4. Play Video YouTube - My Scion xA EV Electric car conversion project
We're converting a Scion xA from a gas car to a fully battery electric vehicle! ... ZAP Xebra and GEM Electric Car Race. 00:58 From: Xebranut. Views: 8,477 ...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdmM4iO4W9c - 113k –
X * X* X* X* X*
As more electricity becomes available from renewable sources & the costs of electric cars & plug-in hybrids come down, we will make substantial progress to transport that is NOT dependent on fossil fuels. And even in the nearer future while some of our electricity comes from sequestered coal fired plants & nuclear, electric cars & plug-in hybrids will help drop the air pollution in our cities a lot.
So, three cheers from here for electric cars & the people who make them.
X * X* X* X* X*
Brad & I believe the switch from fossil fuels & an energy wasteful economy to an economy that is based almost 100 % on renewable energy that is very efficiently used is the new phase of the "industrial revolution" as much as the development of the internet -- perhaps much more so in fact.
This blog is dedicated to helping speed this conversion.
Today’s post: Weds, 3-19-2008
Fossil fuel for cars & trucks is now one of our biggest uses. It definitely is the most visible one to the average person.
Biofuels are one way to power cars & trucks that will help replace fossil fuels. But initially they will be in limited supply. And, they still produce some air pollution in the cities where they are used. Using current technology, they are also mixed with fossil fuels NOT as total replacements.
Since most of the use of electricity is during the day for businesses & for air conditioning & for lighting at night before 11:30 pm & some after 4:30 am with light use from 10:30 am to 5:30 am,
there is existing electric generation capacity not now being used between about 10 PM & 6 AM, particularly between midnight & 4 am.
And, we can both use renewable sources to generate electricity and get increasingly better control of pollution generated by other, centralized sources than we can individual cars & trucks that burn fossil fuels. (As we will cover in next week’s post, some nuclear power as a transition use may also work.)
That means that a major shift to electric cars & plug-in hybrids can help free our cities of air pollution & be a major step to weaning our economy away from fossil fuels.
So drivable, acceptable, cars & trucks that run on electricity or as plug-in hybrids are an important piece of our switching to an economy that runs on renewable energy.
Plug in hybrids are coming. But real electric cars as opposed to slightly supersized golf carts may be available first.
Tesla Motors is close to production on its electric sports car. And, has plans for a sedan within a few years.
This has gotten car enthusiasts’ attention in part because the Tesla Roadster gets good enough acceleration to be very competitive with the best street racers & muscle cars.
It definitely appeals to people who want both performance and to support renewable energy & energy independence at the same time.
What may be less well known is that most electric cars will have better acceleration available at the driver’s demand than most gasoline powered cars – not just the electric sports cars.
Here are two articles relating to this theme.
The first one is about one of the more significant companies that will compete with Tesla Motors.
( I added some paragraphing to the article to emphasize some key points that I think deserve it that were made by the CEO, Jeff Boyd, who was interviewed.)
The second is about a minivan like electric car conversion.
( This article was in an online source called VentureBeat )
“Q&A with Jeff Boyd, CEO of Miles Electric Vehicle
Chris Morrison March 5th, 2008
Everyone knows the name Tesla Motors. High-profile VC fundings, a high-performance sports car and its layoffs have gotten the company endless coverage. However, there’s also a slew of lesser-known electric car companies. One of the handful with real potential (and real funding) is Miles Electric Vehicle, a Santa Monica, Calif. company with plans to release a highway-speed electric car, the XS500, in 2009.
Miles already sells a few low-speed models, but the XS500 will be the most acceptable to Americans — with a top speed of over 80mph, a range of over 120 miles, and the looks and features of a normal car, unlike some all-electric designs that many people find downright bizarre (see some examples here). The planned price is in the $35,000 to $40,000 range, cheaper than Tesla’s Whitestar, which is aiming for $50,000. The company caught my attention with a recent $15 million financing, so I called up CEO Jeff Boyd for a quick interview.
Do you think you’ll get competition from bigger companies?
We hope that there is a lot of competition. A decade ago, the all-electric car failed, for a variety of reasons.
But at this point, we’ve got the catalysts: The homeland security issue, the emissions issue — this is no longer a fad, a niche market or a matter of curiosity. We think it’s a revolution, and we hope manufacturers all over the world are working in the area.
It’s going to take a lot of work and money to make the dream come to fruition. There’s plenty of market to go after, and we anticipate being one of many.
Will you be competitive with larger automakers?
From a technology standpoint, we feel that we can compete. As far as branding and distribution, the traditional automakers are very advanced and mature. But there’s plenty of room in the market when there’s an emerging business. If you look at the US selling 16 million new cars a year, Europe doing a similar number and about 50 million total around the world, there’s no reason we shouldn’t have enough sales to make a business. We welcome competition, we want everyone to jump in so we can reduce our reliance on foreign oil and change how we handle transportation.
Tesla has taken a lot of money — nearly $150 million to date, with more than twice that planned in the future. Will you need to take less money than Tesla has to commercialize?
We don’t anticipate needing anywhere near that amount of money. Our original private funding and the first round of our equity financing looks like enough to continue research on the XS500 and expand our distribution model.
Where does design come in?
There are three keys to our business model. First and foremost, we want to be all-electric. Second, we want to be completely safe and meet all the regulations. And third, we want to be low-cost. In order to be low cost, we’ve adapted chassis that have already been manufactured. Rather than starting with a clean sheet of paper and coming out with a completely new chassis design for our low or high-speed vehicles, this is allowing us to keep our costs down. If we’re going to bring a car out that will really change our reliance on oil, it needs to be cheap. [ed. note: It’s also worth noting that Miles manufactures its vehicles on cheap production lines in China. Tesla also used a pre-existing chassis for the Roadster, but it was a very expensive model from Lotus.]
The cost is still high for the XS500 — will prices come down?
The cost of lithium ion [batteries], which is right now still a fairly expensive technology, will come down over time. We also have a five year development plan with a variety of models in it. The next model after the XS500 is a small cross-over unit that will be priced lower. Whether we can reduce the price on the XS500, we’re not sure. But even if we don’t, we’ll be bringing out lower-cost models over the next two to three years that will expand the market for all electric vehicles.”
….
“Will electric cars be competitive with plug-in hybrids?
I’m not aware of any [plug-in] hybrids that are very close to production. We’re a little over a year away, so we think we’re maybe two or three years ahead of most plug-in hybrid vehicles. We applaud the efforts of the ethanol, hybrid, hydrogen, fuel cell communities, but fundamentally, we think those are transitional technologies toward all-electric. In effect they [all-electric cars] have zero emissions.
About half of our electricity is from coal, but the technology exists to change that. It’s within our grasp to generate electricity without any emissions.
We also like all-electric because the US electric utility grid is capable of handling the charging requirements of a lot of vehicles without expanding greatly.
You took funding from a private equity firm, Angeleno Group, rather than a venture capital group. Why?
The principals [directors] of Angeleno Group have been associated with Miles Rubin [the company’s founder] for many years, so it was natural as we developed for them to reach out to us. We weren’t seeking investors, but upon engaging we were impressed with their true commitment to alternative energy. When you enter a partnership like that, it’s helpful if it goes beyond the cash infusion. If they can help with planning and business development, it can really be meaningful.
What sort of future do you envision? Acquisition, IPO, staying private?
We really don’t have any plans to do any more than continue on the path we’re on, as a private company.”
I found this info online looking for electric cars on Yahoo. I had also heard that there were Scion conversions. So far the progress has been on the boxy minivan model not the more car like Scion model. And, the conversions are a bit pricey. But it IS progress.
And, it shows what some of the potentials are for electric cars when cheaper lithium ion batteries are installed into cars as they are manufactured & the companies realize economies of scale to bring the cost down.
“Scion Electric Car Conversions”
"AC Propulsion, a California-based company that just debuted its eBox, a converted Toyota Scion xB with an electric engine. After you bring your own Scion, AC Propulsion will do the deed for $55,000. So what're the specs on the eBox? We're glad you asked: 180 mile range, top speed of 95 mph, and you can get a full charge in five hours right from your garage's wall outlet. Sure, that sounds like a lot for a car that's ordinarily pretty freakin' cheap (~ $18,000), but when you think that you'll never have to buy gas again over the life of the car, it just might be worth it."
"Sure, a few companies have recently introduced plans for two-seat electric sports cars in the $70,000-$100,000+ price range, but the eBox offers similar performance on a platform that can carry five adults. And the eBox is currently taking orders for delivery in 2007. It is true that I cannot afford $70,000 for a car right now, but if I could, I would insist on buying one that could haul my whole family of four. The eBox fits that bill without any struggle. The fact that it can blow away a Mustang GT is only icing on the cake. "
1. www.scionlife.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=152318 eBox Scion XB conversion
2. AC Propulsion's Scion xB electric car conversion keeps getting better ...
www.evworld.com/view.cfm?page=article&storyid=1172
3. AC Propulsion converts stock Scion xB into fully electric "eBox" car ...
... AcPropulsion, ebox, electric car, Electric Car, toyota scion xb, Toyota Scion Xb ... gas costs $4 per gallon, that the Scion normally gets 30 MPG, and that you drive ...
engadget.com/2006/12/11/ac-propulsion-converts-stock-scion-xb-into-fully-electric
4. Play Video YouTube - My Scion xA EV Electric car conversion project
We're converting a Scion xA from a gas car to a fully battery electric vehicle! ... ZAP Xebra and GEM Electric Car Race. 00:58 From: Xebranut. Views: 8,477 ...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdmM4iO4W9c - 113k –
X * X* X* X* X*
As more electricity becomes available from renewable sources & the costs of electric cars & plug-in hybrids come down, we will make substantial progress to transport that is NOT dependent on fossil fuels. And even in the nearer future while some of our electricity comes from sequestered coal fired plants & nuclear, electric cars & plug-in hybrids will help drop the air pollution in our cities a lot.
So, three cheers from here for electric cars & the people who make them.
X * X* X* X* X*
Brad & I believe the switch from fossil fuels & an energy wasteful economy to an economy that is based almost 100 % on renewable energy that is very efficiently used is the new phase of the "industrial revolution" as much as the development of the internet -- perhaps much more so in fact.
This blog is dedicated to helping speed this conversion.
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Good news & bad on renewable energy….
Today’s post: Weds, 3-5-2008
There have been several really positive news stories lately.
Some time ago the large Silicon Valley technology company, Applied Materials bought a thin film solar company. Since then they have been quietly growing a quite large volume of sales in solar. They are large enough that this has become a quite substantial business already.
Now it’s just been announced that they have signed a deal, apparently with a company in China to build enough solar electricity generation –IN THIS ONE DEAL –that by itself it will increase current world-wide solar electricity generation by about 1/12th or 8 % above its current levels. They are using large arrays of large format, “garage door” sized, thin film panels in a solar energy farm to do this.
This is great news for three reasons. It shows we are beginning to get large scale increases of electricity generated from solar sources. The announcement said that they already are able to do this for about what a fossil fuel plant can do per kilowatt generated costwise. And, by simply continuing to build more capacity, the economy of scale alone will allow them to soon cut costs by another 15 to 20 %. That will make solar cost LESS than fossil fuels for generating electricity. Third, if this solar energy farm is located IN China, it will likely replace a new coal burning plant that otherwise would have been built to generate this electricity.
Secondly, it has been announced that both General Motors & Daimler will begin making & selling hybrid cars using lithium ion batteries.
That’s also very good news for several reasons. It means the energy efficiency of the fleets of cars these two large companies make & sell will begin improving sharply over time. And, as they & other companies perfect using lithium ion batteries, all electric cars like the Tesla cars & plug-in hybrids will increasingly be common & used widely.
Lithium ion batteries are so much lighter & more compact than batteries using heavier metals this is now looking more & more likely. Further, it suggests GM now expects it to MAKE THEM MONEY to make more energy efficient cars. And, if they once manage to do that, all major car manufacturers will do so as well.
Combining these two stories strongly suggests that within 20 years we will increasingly be able to use solar generated electricity to power our cars & SUV’s – or at least provide the majority of their energy needs with solar generated electricity.
These are very large players. So these stories are extremely good news.
The bad news is that not ONE of the three major candidates for President of the United States has yet begun to run as their most important campaign issue that they are the best candidate to lead the conversion of the economy of the United States & the world to run on renewable energy.
We are already about 20 to 40 years late in doing this to avoid serious economic problems from global warming & are within just a few years of the deadline to avoid great depression levels of economic disaster caused by global warming.
Secondly, oil prices have more than tripled in just the past few years. The resulting increase in gasoline prices this has caused have begun to exert a strong braking effect on disposable consumer spending. If increased world wide demand continues to rise faster than new supplies are developed – which looks likely – gasoline prices could easily triple again in 10 years. That won’t be kind to our economy or to people holding on to their jobs. And, this is a very real near-term problem.
Third, the money spent by the United States, Western Europe, Japan, & China on imported oil is directly & indirectly funding terrorists from the countries that have oil to export. This is a very dangerous situation that threatens our national security.
To avoid really harsh economic problems & slow global warming we must have as our next President a leader who will lead an extraordinary, focused effort by virtually every able person in the United States to switch our economy to one powered by renewable energy that we are increasingly efficient at using.
The comparison to the Manhattan Project is apt for this. But it really needs even more than that. It will require an effort comparable to all of what the United States did to win World War II.
John McCain clearly values national security. And, as a Republican, he likely wants to keep our economy & the businesses that make it up strong.
Barack Obama has written in his Audacity of Hope book statements that suggest he knows something about this issue; & most of his stated policy on energy listed on his campaign website is reasonably good. And, he clearly has inspirational leadership ability.
Hillary Clinton has said nothing to suggest she is against renewable energy. And, while Bill Clinton was our President, he did more to advance energy efficiency & renewable energy than is generally known.
But, so far not ONE of them has made this issue the main theme of their campaign.
Gentlemen, Lady, the handwriting is on the wall & has been for quite some time.
It’s the energy economy stupid!
I think the first of the 3 candidates who notices that & runs as the best person to lead us in that area -- & who explains how our economy, our jobs, & our way of life depend on us making this change, will be our next President.
Anything any of you reading this can do to get this to them or the people running their campaigns would be much appreciated.
Today’s post: Weds, 3-5-2008
There have been several really positive news stories lately.
Some time ago the large Silicon Valley technology company, Applied Materials bought a thin film solar company. Since then they have been quietly growing a quite large volume of sales in solar. They are large enough that this has become a quite substantial business already.
Now it’s just been announced that they have signed a deal, apparently with a company in China to build enough solar electricity generation –IN THIS ONE DEAL –that by itself it will increase current world-wide solar electricity generation by about 1/12th or 8 % above its current levels. They are using large arrays of large format, “garage door” sized, thin film panels in a solar energy farm to do this.
This is great news for three reasons. It shows we are beginning to get large scale increases of electricity generated from solar sources. The announcement said that they already are able to do this for about what a fossil fuel plant can do per kilowatt generated costwise. And, by simply continuing to build more capacity, the economy of scale alone will allow them to soon cut costs by another 15 to 20 %. That will make solar cost LESS than fossil fuels for generating electricity. Third, if this solar energy farm is located IN China, it will likely replace a new coal burning plant that otherwise would have been built to generate this electricity.
Secondly, it has been announced that both General Motors & Daimler will begin making & selling hybrid cars using lithium ion batteries.
That’s also very good news for several reasons. It means the energy efficiency of the fleets of cars these two large companies make & sell will begin improving sharply over time. And, as they & other companies perfect using lithium ion batteries, all electric cars like the Tesla cars & plug-in hybrids will increasingly be common & used widely.
Lithium ion batteries are so much lighter & more compact than batteries using heavier metals this is now looking more & more likely. Further, it suggests GM now expects it to MAKE THEM MONEY to make more energy efficient cars. And, if they once manage to do that, all major car manufacturers will do so as well.
Combining these two stories strongly suggests that within 20 years we will increasingly be able to use solar generated electricity to power our cars & SUV’s – or at least provide the majority of their energy needs with solar generated electricity.
These are very large players. So these stories are extremely good news.
The bad news is that not ONE of the three major candidates for President of the United States has yet begun to run as their most important campaign issue that they are the best candidate to lead the conversion of the economy of the United States & the world to run on renewable energy.
We are already about 20 to 40 years late in doing this to avoid serious economic problems from global warming & are within just a few years of the deadline to avoid great depression levels of economic disaster caused by global warming.
Secondly, oil prices have more than tripled in just the past few years. The resulting increase in gasoline prices this has caused have begun to exert a strong braking effect on disposable consumer spending. If increased world wide demand continues to rise faster than new supplies are developed – which looks likely – gasoline prices could easily triple again in 10 years. That won’t be kind to our economy or to people holding on to their jobs. And, this is a very real near-term problem.
Third, the money spent by the United States, Western Europe, Japan, & China on imported oil is directly & indirectly funding terrorists from the countries that have oil to export. This is a very dangerous situation that threatens our national security.
To avoid really harsh economic problems & slow global warming we must have as our next President a leader who will lead an extraordinary, focused effort by virtually every able person in the United States to switch our economy to one powered by renewable energy that we are increasingly efficient at using.
The comparison to the Manhattan Project is apt for this. But it really needs even more than that. It will require an effort comparable to all of what the United States did to win World War II.
John McCain clearly values national security. And, as a Republican, he likely wants to keep our economy & the businesses that make it up strong.
Barack Obama has written in his Audacity of Hope book statements that suggest he knows something about this issue; & most of his stated policy on energy listed on his campaign website is reasonably good. And, he clearly has inspirational leadership ability.
Hillary Clinton has said nothing to suggest she is against renewable energy. And, while Bill Clinton was our President, he did more to advance energy efficiency & renewable energy than is generally known.
But, so far not ONE of them has made this issue the main theme of their campaign.
Gentlemen, Lady, the handwriting is on the wall & has been for quite some time.
It’s the energy economy stupid!
I think the first of the 3 candidates who notices that & runs as the best person to lead us in that area -- & who explains how our economy, our jobs, & our way of life depend on us making this change, will be our next President.
Anything any of you reading this can do to get this to them or the people running their campaigns would be much appreciated.
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