More very good news and very bad news on clean energy....

Today's post: Wednesday, 12-30-2009

We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.

At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both.

And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.

Further, it’s extremely clear that the most supported and economically beneficial solution to add energy that does not use oil nor burn fossil fuels to release more CO2 into air that already has too much is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy production, particularly those that generate electricity & to dramatically increase energy efficiency and reduce the amount of energy that is now wasted.

And, of those the more important long range solution is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy generation.

Today’s post:

1. The very bad news first.:

Last Sunday, 12-27-2009, I found an article in the local free paper that comes on Sundays. In it someone had written -- but had not signed -- an article that could have easily been written by the disinformation editor for the petroleum and coal industries. To be fair, the editor of the paper may actually have believed what was in the article and written it. But it was not labeled as editorial comment nor had that editor signed it. So I do wonder about who really wrote it.

Either way, some people actually believe the statements in the article. And some people who like their current gas using car or truck or are quite worried about the economy will read this other similar statements and vote against even reasonable clean energy measures or vote for politicians who will.

This could be quite harmful to our economy and our planet within 10 or 15 years.

The article title was “Green Christmas Presents America could do without.”

It said green energy measures backed by President Obama will soon increase our utility bills. It also said that since oil, coal, and natural gas supply 84% of our electricity we will soon have less electricity generated to power our economy.

It also points out that no new offshore oil leases have been done since Obama took office & that soon new fees will be charge the existing offshore oil production.

It then states that instead of the 25% of our power coming from renewable energy that Obama has set as a goal, one recent estimate expects we will actually get 8%.

Its conclusion is that Obama’s changes will lower the “American standard of living.”

And, it said that most American’s who voted for Obama in 2008 would dislike that change -- & that it was NOT what they voted for.

Some of this is accurate. Utility bills will go up at first. Renewable energy generation additions are not yet on track to do a lot better than the 8% figure. (The credit crunch that launched the current recession killed many large projects and some companies that were well on their way to the 25% figure before that, for example.)

And, despite it being harmful to global warming efforts and potentially harmful to the people living on the nearby coasts, more domestic oil drilling particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, would increase our national security and slow gasoline price increases somewhat.

To be fair, these issues need to be addressed to help be sure our efforts to make the future economy far more reliable, stronger, and larger by switching towards renewable energy, energy efficiency, and some increases in nuclear power don’t harm the economy too much now or put our national security at risk.

That’s why I very much like the collaboration between John Kerry and Lindsay Graham to do these things that Joe Lieberman has more recently joined. It will address many of these issues while continuing to add more renewable energy.

But such writers as the person who wrote “Green Christmas Presents America could do without” totally ignore the risks of global warming, of total economic collapse if oil begins to run out before we are sufficiently weaned off of it and add enough alternatives, & of run ups in energy costs five to ten times larger than the cost of green energy programs that may well otherwise repeat our recent economic downturn -- only worse.

To write such ignorant and one sided stuff is both irresponsible and potentially harmful.

So it’s sad to see it.

And, unfortunately it’s clearly still with us.

2. The very good news is that when technology and entrepreneurial companies – both start ups and large companies -- begin to make new renewable energy cost less than energy from fossil fuel and there are energy efficient choices for many products that will save enough to pay back buyers in 4 years or less, the problem will rapidly be solved as ignorant writers like the one I recently read will become close to irrelevant.

And, we ARE getting there.

Electric cars and plug-in hybrids that mostly run on electricity cause less global warming and use less oil than gasoline or diesel burning cars -- even if the electricity still comes from coal. They will thereby increase the national security of the United States, Europe, and Japan who now over-rely on oil from politically unstable places such as Venezuela and Nigeria, etc.

A tidal wave of such cars has begun. By 10 or 15 years from now most cars and many trucks will have such power plants.

And, as renewable energy and nuclear come online to create the electricity, we will even burn less coal despite using more electricity.

In addition, the economy will improve since such cars need less maintenance than the cars that ran only on gasoline or diesel. Electric cars need far less maintenance; & the fossil fuel engines in plug-in hybrids will run far less often and take far less of the load even when they do run than they otherwise would have, so they will also require a good bit less frequent repairs.

Backing that up are new technologies and companies providing them that will soon deliver batteries that are lighter, take more of a charge, charge up faster, are more efficient, and maybe even cheaper eventually than what we have now.

Similarly, solar photovoltaic and solar thermal and wind generated power technologies and the economies of scale will soon make electricity generated by them cost less than electricity generated from coal costs now, let alone what it will cost when the real costs of pollution and combating global warming are added to their costs. This is already well on its way to happening.

This real drop in costs from renewable sources is happening now even if for now the politics of such measures now postpone those added costs for burning coal for awhile yet.

In the Silicon Valley alone there are two venture funds devoting a billion dollars each to creating such technologies and turning them into real and cost effective products soon. And, just here in the Silicon Valley there’s probably another 8 billion dollars in clean energy investments by smaller funds.

When you add venture funds in some large companies, the rest of the United States, venture funds outside the United States and the direct investment in such projects by China, you begin to talk about some real money aimed at producing precisely such effects. And, it’s beginning to happen.

That’s why the title of this blog, Renewable Energy Arrives is more news than prediction at this point.

And, that’s very good news indeed.

3 pieces of good economic AND renewable energy news....

Today's post: Wednesday, 10-28-2009

We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.

At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both.

And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.

Further, it’s extremely clear that the most supported and economically beneficial solution to add energy that does not use oil nor burn fossil fuels to release more CO2 into air that already has too much is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy production, particularly those that generate electricity & to dramatically increase energy efficiency and reduce the amount of energy that is now wasted.

And, of those the more important long range solution is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy generation.

There are 3 pieces of extremely good news in the last week showing that money is being spent & will be spent to build more and more useful renewable energy and which will create jobs in the next few months to three years and more!

1. For example, if you are a homeowner, you may well have a home that would do well to have solar photovoltaic panels on your roof and perhaps other parts of your property. Or, you may own a shopping center where you could install solar photovoltaic panels on the roof and on canopies over all or most of your parking lot.

But with what money?

For many reasons, over time the price for grid electricity will rise, so in addition to the environmental benefits you might actually save money on your costs for electricity over a 20 year time period.

But with the possibility that you might sell your property or be foreclosed on and many banks not having the resources to lend on anything but a sure thing these days, if you don’t have the entire construction cost in savings or in your checking account that has no other demands on it, how on earth will you finance installing the solar you’d like to install and may even save money on?

The reality is that most people won’t have access to the financing or the upfront cash & won’t install the solar.

Magic wand time has arrived!

8 days ago on Tuesday, 10-20-2009 the San Francisco Chronicle has a story that a local & famous community has found a solution. Even better, the current federal administration is taking steps to see that communities all over the United States begin to adopt this plan.

Here’s a few excerpts from that story.:

“Biden to model solar finance plan on Berkeley's

The solar financing plan that originated in Berkeley in 2007 will become a national model, Vice President Joe Biden said Monday.

San Francisco Chronicle, Carolyn Jones, Chronicle Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 20, 2009 E-mail Carolyn Jones at carolynjones@sfchronicle.com.

Biden's program, known as Recovery Through Retrofit, creates a framework for cities, counties and states to set up tax districts that allow residential and business property owners to install solar panels and make other energy improvements, repaying the investment over a 20-year property tax assessment.”


“Since Berkeley adopted its financing plan, cities across the nation have adopted similar models, and California, New York, Texas and 11 other states have passed legislation making it easier for municipalities to create their own financing plans.

Berkeley's plan intends to eliminate the up-front cost of solar installation, which could total about $20,000 for an average bungalow, and the financial commitment that could follow property owners after they move from the home.

Under the plan, the assessment stays with the property, not the person. Property owners pay no money up front but pay about $180 a month on their property tax bill….”

“The federal plan and those adopted in most other cities allow property owners to make other energy-efficiency upgrades, too, such as installing new windows, insulation and weather stripping.

Solar financing plans have been a boon for installers. A Berkeley firm, Sungevity….seen its business increase dramatically in California, including in Sonoma County and Palm Desert, which have adopted versions of the financing plan. "Where it's available, it's a clear market driver," said Danny Kennedy, Sungevity president. "There's no question there's a demand out there, and this goes a long way to removing the barriers."

(Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/10/19/BAKT1A7R72.DTL&tsp=1#ixzz0VGMDGa7Z /)”

This one innovation in financing alone could multiply solar and energy efficiency upgrades in every community that adopts this plan.

Now it looks as if nearly every community will have it soon.

This could make our entire country 25% more energy efficient in its energy use in housing & multiply our total solar installations by five over the next 10 or 15 years.
Even better, as most of this will be done where the electricity will be used on the exact site where it’s generated, no new transmission lines need to be built to enable it.

2. Yesterday, Tuesday, 10-27-2009, the San Jose Mercury News reported that Energy Secretary, Steven Chu announced the first $151 million in grants for potentially high reward experiments in energy related projects.

“U. S. looking for clean-tech ‘home runs’ “

Some of these will fail or not do very much. But those that succeed will quite literally generate billions in venture capital to expand them and tens of thousands of new jobs.

There will be another $249 million in such grants as the total was reported to eventually be $400 million.

These included:

a way intended to make desalinization of water enough more energy efficient to enable us to stop over-drawing our rivers and underground water supplies AND supply growing populations and farmers.

an experiment designed to potentially double the amount of electricity held by lithium ion batteries used in electric cars, plug-in hybrids, electronic devices and possibly storage for solar generated electricity in homes and commercial facilities.

a way to make wind turbines at lower cost.

a membrane that may be able to capture carbon dioxide thus enabling cost effective storage or redirection to algae to make biofuels in coal or natural gas burning installations.

work on systems to enable individuals and institutions to easily monitor energy use and reduce and optimize the amount of energy used and its cost.

And those were just the grants in the area served by the San Jose Mercury News!

3. For large scale solar photovoltaic and solar thermal electricity generation to be useful and cost effective, we must have a transmission system that can quickly be attached to such plants and deliver the electricity to the people and industries that need it and are not nearby. (Many new wind generation areas and some locations for new nuclear plants have the exact same problem.)

In addition, we need to make that transmission system safer and more reliable and waste less electricity than the one we have now.

Upgrading our current transmission system for electricity enough to accomplish these things will create thousands of new jobs and improve our economy as much or more than the Interstate Highway system did when it was built.

That will take billions of dollars.

As of last Tuesday, we have an $8.1 billion dollar downpayment on that system!

On Tuesday, 10-27-2009, President Obama announced a $3.4 billion dollar government supported fund for electricity grid modernization projects. With the matching $4.7 billion in private investments, that’s an $8.1 billion dollar downpayment on making an upgrade to our electric transmission grid comparable to building the Interstate Highway System.

That will create so many jobs and boost the economy so much even the US Chamber of Commerce praised this clean-energy initiative.

These three developments each individually will enable the building and use of far more renewable energy than we have now and create jobs and improve our economy.

The effects of all three together over the next one to 3 years and beyond is the first thing I’ve seen that gives me real confidence our recession has something that will cause it to end -- and that it will end and put people back to work.

So they will each increase our energy efficiency and amount of renewable energy AND improve our economy.