More very good news and very bad news on clean energy....

Today's post: Wednesday, 12-30-2009

We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.

At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both.

And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.

Further, it’s extremely clear that the most supported and economically beneficial solution to add energy that does not use oil nor burn fossil fuels to release more CO2 into air that already has too much is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy production, particularly those that generate electricity & to dramatically increase energy efficiency and reduce the amount of energy that is now wasted.

And, of those the more important long range solution is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy generation.

Today’s post:

1. The very bad news first.:

Last Sunday, 12-27-2009, I found an article in the local free paper that comes on Sundays. In it someone had written -- but had not signed -- an article that could have easily been written by the disinformation editor for the petroleum and coal industries. To be fair, the editor of the paper may actually have believed what was in the article and written it. But it was not labeled as editorial comment nor had that editor signed it. So I do wonder about who really wrote it.

Either way, some people actually believe the statements in the article. And some people who like their current gas using car or truck or are quite worried about the economy will read this other similar statements and vote against even reasonable clean energy measures or vote for politicians who will.

This could be quite harmful to our economy and our planet within 10 or 15 years.

The article title was “Green Christmas Presents America could do without.”

It said green energy measures backed by President Obama will soon increase our utility bills. It also said that since oil, coal, and natural gas supply 84% of our electricity we will soon have less electricity generated to power our economy.

It also points out that no new offshore oil leases have been done since Obama took office & that soon new fees will be charge the existing offshore oil production.

It then states that instead of the 25% of our power coming from renewable energy that Obama has set as a goal, one recent estimate expects we will actually get 8%.

Its conclusion is that Obama’s changes will lower the “American standard of living.”

And, it said that most American’s who voted for Obama in 2008 would dislike that change -- & that it was NOT what they voted for.

Some of this is accurate. Utility bills will go up at first. Renewable energy generation additions are not yet on track to do a lot better than the 8% figure. (The credit crunch that launched the current recession killed many large projects and some companies that were well on their way to the 25% figure before that, for example.)

And, despite it being harmful to global warming efforts and potentially harmful to the people living on the nearby coasts, more domestic oil drilling particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, would increase our national security and slow gasoline price increases somewhat.

To be fair, these issues need to be addressed to help be sure our efforts to make the future economy far more reliable, stronger, and larger by switching towards renewable energy, energy efficiency, and some increases in nuclear power don’t harm the economy too much now or put our national security at risk.

That’s why I very much like the collaboration between John Kerry and Lindsay Graham to do these things that Joe Lieberman has more recently joined. It will address many of these issues while continuing to add more renewable energy.

But such writers as the person who wrote “Green Christmas Presents America could do without” totally ignore the risks of global warming, of total economic collapse if oil begins to run out before we are sufficiently weaned off of it and add enough alternatives, & of run ups in energy costs five to ten times larger than the cost of green energy programs that may well otherwise repeat our recent economic downturn -- only worse.

To write such ignorant and one sided stuff is both irresponsible and potentially harmful.

So it’s sad to see it.

And, unfortunately it’s clearly still with us.

2. The very good news is that when technology and entrepreneurial companies – both start ups and large companies -- begin to make new renewable energy cost less than energy from fossil fuel and there are energy efficient choices for many products that will save enough to pay back buyers in 4 years or less, the problem will rapidly be solved as ignorant writers like the one I recently read will become close to irrelevant.

And, we ARE getting there.

Electric cars and plug-in hybrids that mostly run on electricity cause less global warming and use less oil than gasoline or diesel burning cars -- even if the electricity still comes from coal. They will thereby increase the national security of the United States, Europe, and Japan who now over-rely on oil from politically unstable places such as Venezuela and Nigeria, etc.

A tidal wave of such cars has begun. By 10 or 15 years from now most cars and many trucks will have such power plants.

And, as renewable energy and nuclear come online to create the electricity, we will even burn less coal despite using more electricity.

In addition, the economy will improve since such cars need less maintenance than the cars that ran only on gasoline or diesel. Electric cars need far less maintenance; & the fossil fuel engines in plug-in hybrids will run far less often and take far less of the load even when they do run than they otherwise would have, so they will also require a good bit less frequent repairs.

Backing that up are new technologies and companies providing them that will soon deliver batteries that are lighter, take more of a charge, charge up faster, are more efficient, and maybe even cheaper eventually than what we have now.

Similarly, solar photovoltaic and solar thermal and wind generated power technologies and the economies of scale will soon make electricity generated by them cost less than electricity generated from coal costs now, let alone what it will cost when the real costs of pollution and combating global warming are added to their costs. This is already well on its way to happening.

This real drop in costs from renewable sources is happening now even if for now the politics of such measures now postpone those added costs for burning coal for awhile yet.

In the Silicon Valley alone there are two venture funds devoting a billion dollars each to creating such technologies and turning them into real and cost effective products soon. And, just here in the Silicon Valley there’s probably another 8 billion dollars in clean energy investments by smaller funds.

When you add venture funds in some large companies, the rest of the United States, venture funds outside the United States and the direct investment in such projects by China, you begin to talk about some real money aimed at producing precisely such effects. And, it’s beginning to happen.

That’s why the title of this blog, Renewable Energy Arrives is more news than prediction at this point.

And, that’s very good news indeed.