International progress beginning....

Today's post: Wednesday, 12-2-2009

We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.

At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both.

And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.

Further, it’s extremely clear that the most supported and economically beneficial solution to add energy that does not use oil nor burn fossil fuels to release more CO2 into air that already has too much is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy production, particularly those that generate electricity & to dramatically increase energy efficiency and reduce the amount of energy that is now wasted.

And, of those the more important long range solution is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy generation.

1. More and more people AND countries are beginning to realize these things and take constructive action.

China has recently made several announcements that will soon add gigawatts of new electric generation from wind and solar sources. India has begun the process of adding gigawatts of solar electricity generation.

And, as these things come online they will gradually begin to trigger the transmission upgrades to deliver this new electricity to where it will be used.

The weekly CEN Weekly Intelligence Update has several other stories that show that, even though it’s still short of what’s needed, we ARE finally beginning to get more movement towards a clean energy future.

For example President Obama will attend the Copenhagen Talks December 9. He will bring several cabinet members and high-ranking Administration officials & apparently has pre-announced a goal of reducing U.S. global warming emissions, such as CO2, to roughly 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. And, a goal of an 83 percent reduction in global warming emissions by 2050.

The 17 percent below 2005 levels target is consistent with the legislation that passed in the U.S. House of Representatives earlier this year.

And, this near term goal is both:

weaker than many scientists would like & weaker than what might be needed to induce other countries to make an added effort to achieve such goals;

AND, given the programs in place & not yet in place to achieve it, it may be more than we can deliver.

The good news is that the U.S. has now joined much of the rest of the world in taking action to solve this world wide problem. The train is not yet going fast enough; but at least it has left the station and is picking up speed.

The 17 % goal may not be endorsed by the U.S. Senate or the combined House and Senate bill that finally passes; & it may be a bit too much too soon to expect even if it is.

But since we will make much more effort than we were and there is continuing and multiple technological and entrepreneurial innovation, we might achieve the 83 percent reduction in global warming emissions by 2050.

The Chinese propose to reduce carbon intensity – the amount of carbon emitted per unit of economic output – by 40-45 percent compared to 2005 levels.

This will very likely cause the emissions from China to increase overall instead of dropping as needs to be achieved if they do no more than that in actuality. It may also cause unsustainable increases in air and water pollution in China & in countries downwind from China.

China has not yet made the leap a goal of doubling their economic output per capita AND slashing their overall release of CO2 & other global warming emissions at least in half of 2005 levels.

But here again, the train has left the station. What they will do and ARE already beginning to do may well provide the foundation to achieve just that goal by 2050.

Both the United States and China are beginning to take constructive action. So is India. The rest of the developed world, Germany in particular, and much of Western Europe has already begun.

So, despite the fact that many of the key countries have a big list each of what goals they will NOT yet agree to, the real progress is actually substantial and promising.

2. Second, the less developed world countries are asking for help financially in dealing with the effects of global warming. The bad news is that the entire developed world may not be rich enough, even if they could promise it with their own internal politics, to give this help AND do what they should do to solve the underlying problem.

To me this means that the less developed countries need to prioritize what will make the most positive difference and then ask for seed money and organizational help to create workable programs that they can fund in part themselves and do private fund raising and even bank loans to get done. The seed money and organizational help, given that self-help attitude and well though through programs -- might be affordable and the developed countries might be able to sell it politically to their own people.

I suspect many less developed countries will simply demand more help and not do this. The bad news is that I suspect only those countries that do something like what I just suggested will be able to do a decently good job in combating global warming.

It is true the global warming was caused in the past by the now developed countries and now is largely due to them and the newly developed large countries China and India. What I see may not be entirely fair or desirable. But I think it describes the reality the less developed countries now face.

The good news is that some of the methods and technologies the developed countries develop to combat global warming WILL make it to many of the less developed countries. And that will do some good.