Some hope for Copenhagen but more for multiple efforts....

Today's post: Wednesday, 12-16-2009

We need an 80% reduction in fossil fuel use by 2050 to avoid the worst global warming effects. And, practically speaking, we need to also double our electricity generation and double the useful work done per unit of electricity & other energy sources as well during that same time to have a decent economy.

At some point, the oil that we’ve been using to power much of our economy will begin to run low enough that our world economy will shrink due to lack of supply or excessive costs or both.

And, once the demand for oil picks up again with the apparent economic recovery or supply begins to plateau or drop, the prices will again go back up. That will cause more hard times economically unless we have enough alternative sources of energy to turn to.

Further, it’s extremely clear that the most supported and economically beneficial solution to add energy that does not use oil nor burn fossil fuels to release more CO2 into air that already has too much is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy production, particularly those that generate electricity & to dramatically increase energy efficiency and reduce the amount of energy that is now wasted.

And, of those the more important long range solution is to build massive amounts of new renewable energy generation.

Today’s post:

1. It looks like the Copenhagen talks will have mixed results at best. As I read it, there are some hopeful points however.

We may see a relatively good mechanism put in place to help countries with large areas of forests receive money to compensate them for not cutting them down for sale as lumber or for new agricultural areas plus enough money to enforce & police not allowing businesses & criminal groups to cut down forests on their own.

Despite the perhaps unbridgeable differences, it does look like more countries are each beginning to do more to combat global warming. And, the governments of almost every country on earth now know this is a priority to address.

One interesting point is that many countries in Europe and Japan are planning to hit some quite ambitious targets for CO2 reductions. To the extent they succeed, there will be methods and technologies used that can then be emulated elsewhere to improve the effectiveness of CO2 reduction there. It will be interesting to watch which of these countries actually achieve their targets and how those that did so managed it.

2. The number of effective ways to prevent further global warming and to begin to use far less coal and petroleum is beginning to get quite large.

And, the number of governments at all levels that are making specific plans to do more is also beginning to be quite large.

One trend I like is to find more ways to create green jobs by doing things to increase energy efficiency or to better finance individuals to install renewable energy generation.

For example, if buying $1,000 worth of more energy efficient household appliances produces more than $150 a year of savings & thousands of people do it, the 15% annual return makes it financeable; & doing it will preserve or add jobs at the appliance makers and sellers.

Where people can install much better insulation and double pane windows and solar panels and, in some areas, wind driven generators of electricity for direct savings on their utility bills or even payment for any excess electricity generated AND finance that through their municipality and then pay it back with slightly increase property taxes over 20 or 30 years, thousands more people will do these things and jobs will be created.

These measures will add jobs now; & the new energy generated or released by energy efficiency improvements will increase the strength of the economy as they come online.

As another example, gradually nearly every state in the United States is developing some kind of program to boost renewable energy generation or energy efficiency or both.

These projects include new wind generated electricity, new solar installations, new biofuel production, and new geothermal power production.

If the Kerry, Graham, Lieberman compromise plan passes, we will also gradually have more nuclear plants – and, I think we will also have more conversion of natural gas and coal in the United Sates to liquid fuels to replace imported oil, and more biofuel production from feeding the CO2 from burning natural gas or coal to generate electricity to algae to make more liquid biofuels that will also help to replace imported oil thus increasing the energy independence of the United States and helping to gradually wean the world economy from its current and dangerous overdependence on oil.

3. The good news for the countries that now supply the world with oil is that initially their sales will be flat or very little changed due to the slowness of these transitions and changes combined with the huge installed base of oil using energy uses plus world economic and population growth.

And, for many of these countries, notably Saudi Arabia, they will be in a position to harvest solar photovoltaic and solar thermal power so well, if they use their oil money to build these facilities and transmission lines, they will be able to support enough local industry and sell enough electricity to European countries to prosper without any sales of oil; & they will continue to sell oil if only to make petrochemicals as J Paul Getty forecasted many years ago.

But, best of all, if they build solar facilities, diversified local businesses, and invest in businesses elsewhere with their oil money while it’s still coming to them, they’ll continue to prosper when they begin to simply run out of oil to sell.


In summary, the results at Copenhagen will likely disappoint many who had hoped for far more. But, despite that & almost in contradiction to it, the real progress IS beginning to happen and pick up speed in so many places and in so many ways, the reality is beginning to look far more promising.